Kure Beach, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

584
FXUS62 KILM 261040
AFDILM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
640 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonably warm temperatures continue today ahead of an
approaching cold front. The front will bring good chances of
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon through Sunday. A
tropical cyclone may develop over the Bahamas this weekend and
could bring impacts to the Carolinas as early as Monday.
Increasing winds and rough seas will develop offshore but inland
impacts including heavy rain and wind are still less certain.
&&
.UPDATE...
No major changes coming down the track at the 7 AM EDT forecast
update.
Updated 12Z TAF discussion found below.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Latest surface analysis shows a cold front draped across the
eastern portions of Appalachia, where it will try to cross over
into the Piedmont over the next several hours, but may not get
there. Aloft, a negatively tilted trough is oriented from
northeast to southwest, with the axis spanning roughly from the
Ohio Valley to ArkLaTex. While the parent upper low remains in
the Ohio Valley, as this trough continues to deepen, it will
spawn a secondary low over the Tennessee Valley later this
morning. It will eventually become a cutoff low by this
afternoon, and slowly sink into the Deep South through tonight.
This keeps the surface front quasi-stationary for most of today.
Dewpoints have remained locked in the lower 70s for most of the
area, while precipitable water (PWAT) values currently linger
in the 1.7-1.8" range. As the cutoff low forms and moves
eastward, it pumps even more moisture into the layer, and PWATs
could hit 1.9" to even 2" at the coast. This will bring us a bit
more cloud cover today, which down the high temperatures from
yesterday, but a few areas are still likely to hit 90 degrees.
We`ll be in a lull for the morning and possibly even into the
early afternoon hours, due to lack of lift and forcing. But
convection will finally start popping late this afternoon,
thanks to a combination of the seabreeze and the cutoff low
being close enough to advect some better vorticity to the area.
Plenty of instability to work with out there, with SBCAPE
shooting up as high as 2000 J/kg. However, shear, helicity, and
mid-level lapse rates all look pretty tame, so severe weather
shouldn`t be an issue. Considering the high PWATs and possible
training, flash flooding cannot be ruled out. Wouldn`t be
surprised to see some isolated areas get 2-4 inches, but since
drought conditions have been increasing in recent weeks, I think
soils should be able to handle it. Corfidi upshear and
downshear vectors also appear much too fast to support
widespread flash flooding.
The cutoff low deepens overnight tonight, and the trough axis
starts to orient itself more vertically, allowing the surface
front to push towards the coast. Even with loss of daytime
heating, expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to continue
overnight. Lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
An upr-level trough and the main moisture axis remain in a
favorable position this period for high chances of rain, along
with a lingering sfc frontal boundary as well. PoPs are now up
to 80%, with moderate to heavy rain possible in training cells
as flow aloft becomes parallel to the low-level boundary. Best
rain chances transition towards eastern areas esp. offshore
Saturday night. After a very warm Friday, temps Saturday will be
right at climatological norms...highs mainly in the lwr 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Focus over the long term period continues to be on the evolution
of current Tropical Disturbance 94L which is starting to get a
bit better organized as it moves north of Haiti. It will track
northwestwards into the Bahamas, likely strengthening to at
least Tropical Storm Imelda, at which point there continues to
be much uncertainty over its track and strength as a lot rides
on the position and strength of upr-level low pressure over the
southern Appalachians, as well as tropical cyclone Humberto
east of 94L. 00Z guidance continues to be split over whether 94L
takes a sharp turn out to sea or tracks ashore into the
Carolinas. Continue to follow the latest forecasts from the
National Hurricane Center. It would be prudent to begin
reviewing hurricane action plans across the eastern Carolinas in
case we deal with a direct impact early next week.
Forecast following the potential tropical system is also low
confidence mid next week. Strong sfc high pressure building
north of the area will lead to breezy NE flow, while an upr-
level closed low could still be positioned over the SE states,
so at least chance PoPs remain in the forecast each day.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mostly VFR to open the 12Z TAF period. Patchy fog has created
some MVFR visibility restrictions at KLBT within the last hour
or so. This should mix out by 13Z this morning.
From there, VFR expected through the rest of the morning and
into the early afternoon. Convection chances start increasing
after 20Z this afternoon, where PROB30 groups for TSRA were
included for KILM, KFLO, and KLBT. Some lull in the activity
expected after sunset this evening, but TSRA may ramp up again
periodically throughout the night, as a cold front approaches
the area. In between showers and storms, boundary layer winds
calm. Given the ample moisture in place, this looks to be a
heavy IFR/LIFR setup with fog and low stratus after 06Z tonight.
Extended Outlook...Showers and thunderstorms will create periods
of MVFR to local IFR conditions in ceilings and low visibility
throughout the weekend. There is a low, but growing potential
that a tropical cyclone may impact the eastern Carolinas Monday
into Monday night with strong wind, low ceilings, and low
visibility in heavy rain.
&&
.MARINE...
Through Tonight...SW to SSW winds at 10-15 kts expected through
tonight, with seas largely at 1-3 ft. Outside of the wind
waves, the long period easterly swell continues at 8-10 seconds.
Saturday through Tuesday...All eyes continue to be on current
Tropical Disturbance 94L as it approaches from the Bahamas over
the weekend. Although guidance continues to vary from a direct
landfall all the way to staying well out to sea, expect
increasing winds and moreso seas due to strong easterly
swell...SCA conditions should commence by early Monday with seas
up to at least 10 ft late Monday. The wind forecast is trickier
as it obviously depends on the exact track of the tropical
disturbance, but regardless, marine interests should begin
reviewing plans for dangerous wind and wave conditions along the
Carolina coast staring early next week.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...IGB
NEAR TERM...IGB
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...MAS/IGB

NWS ILM Office Area Forecast Discussion