Kuroki, North Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

979
FXUS63 KBIS 291744
AFDBIS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1244 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above average temperatures and occasionally breezy conditions
  continue through the middle of the week.
- Mostly dry conditions continue through the middle of the week,
  though a few stray showers, perhaps with a rumble or two of
  thunder, are possible.
- Cooler, more seasonable conditions, and 20 to 30 percent rain
  chances return at the end of the week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
A few showers have developed in South Dakota and are slowly
moving north. There still remains high uncertainty the
atmosphere becomes uncapped enough for thunderstorm development
today. Added in some thunder mention in the HWO to align with
SPC`s general thunder risk for today. Otherwise the forecast
remains on track.
UPDATE
Issued at 958 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Little needing updating this morning. A few isolated
thunderstorms have developed across far northeastern portions of
the state along a frontal boundary. This could be a hint
isolated thunderstorms are possible along this boundary today
through this evening. Instability parameters are modest across
the state today, although shear is lacking. Confidence is still
low in thunderstorm development across our CWA today. Most of
the area looks to be in a warm thermal ridge today, which tends
to be capped. The lift from this weak front looks limited and
may not be enough to overcome the capping today. Maintained 10
percent chances for precipitation today mainly in the eastern
half of the state. Otherwise look for highs in the 70s north to
80s south today. Some breezy winds may be found in the north
today.
UPDATE
Issued at 632 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
A little patchy fog has developed in the southwest, though
should dissipate by mid-morning as the sun rises and winds
increase. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Upper level high over the eastern CONUS will gradually lift
northward through Tuesday before stalling over the Great Lakes
Region, while associated ridge amplifies through Wednesday.
This will continue advecting warm air over the Northern Plains.
Simultaneously, surface high over south central Canada will
propagate eastward over Ontario and Quebec resulting in warm,
relatively moist southerly flow prevailing at the surface. With
this, highs today will range from the 70s north to the mid 80s
south. After which, highs Tuesday through Thursday are forecast
to be in the upper 70s to mid 80s for most of the state. Lows
are also progged to range mostly from the mid 50s to low 60s,
which is very warm for this time of year.
For the most part, conditions should remain dry through
Thursday. However, WAA today could force a few showers or even
a stray thunderstorm late this afternoon and evening, mainly
over the eastern half of the state. That said, confidence in
this development remains very low, so left out mentionable PoPs
for now. Embedded weak shortwave energy riding the western
extent of the ridge Tuesday through Thursday could result in
additional low end shower chances. However, most areas will
remain dry this week through the day Thursday.
Beginning Thursday night and to finish out the week, a
significant change in the pattern is likely. Multiple troughs,
arguably longwave in nature, will break down the aforementioned
ridge. This will bring much cooler air to the forecast area and
the return of precipitation chances. The latest evolution shows
that that precipitation chances Thursday night through this
weekend will mostly be quick moving waves with low chances
(around 20 to 30 percent) across much of the area. Confidence
is high that temperatures will return to more seasonable levels
later this weekend and into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.
An isolated thunderstorm is possible this afternoon and evening,
although confidence is not high enough to include in TAFs at
this time. VFR conditions are expected for tonight. Some low
level wind shear is possible in central portions, and for now
have included in the KBIS TAF. VFR conditions then continue for
Tuesday, with another small chance for afternoon showers and
thunderstorms. A steady east southeast wind will be found
today, with a breezy southerly wind expected on Tuesday.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Anglin
DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...Anglin

NWS BIS Office Area Forecast Discussion