Kurten, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

464
FXUS64 KHGX 221116
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
616 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
- Chances for isolated to scattered showers/storms continue today
  and tomorrow with the highest rain chances closer to the coast.
- Higher chance of showers/storms on Wednesday as a frontal
  boundary pushes through the region. Locally heavier
  thunderstorms cannot be ruled out.
- Drier and less hot temperatures expected during the second half
  of the week behind the front.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
For Monday and Tuesday, we opted for a good old fashion
persistence forecast. That means a continuation of daily isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms along with humid and
slightly hotter than normal conditions. The best chance of showers
and thunderstorms will be at the coast. The one caveat is that
ridging looks a tad stronger for Monday which could cause PoPs to
under perform. But let`s go with persistence for now. The
mid/upper pattern undergoes a shift by the middle of the week, as
a deep layer trough digs southward over the Midwest and
Mississippi River Valley. At the surface, an area of low pressure
is expected to form over the south-central plains on Wednesday,
before accelerating northeastward and moving into the Great Lakes
by Thursday. The low`s associated cold front should push southward
into SE Texas on Wednesday, enhancing LL convergence, while the
aforementioned trough enhances larger scale lift. Most guidance
suggest a PWAT surge as the steepening gradient support increasing
southerly LL flow from the Gulf. This set up would be favorable
for more widespread and potentially locally heavy shower and
thunderstorm activity on Wednesday. Depending on the speed of the
front, this activity could clear out by Thursday or linger into
Thursday. The coast stands the best chance of seeing
showers/storms linger into Thursday.
Conditions behind the front are expected to become less hot and
humid. But there`s some uncertainty regarding how much cooler air
is advected into our region. The ECMWF has generally been stronger
with advection, dropping much of the region into the mid/upper 80s
for highs with lows well down into the 60s. Meanwhile, the GFS has
kept highs in the 90s. BUT, the current overnight run (still
coming in) of the GFS actually trended more in the ECMWFs
direction. So the current temperature blend in our grids leans
more in the ECMWF`s direction. I wouldn`t call it fall like. But
our forecast does features lower humidity, mild nights, and
pleasantly warm (relatively speaking) afternoon during the second
half of the week.
Self
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 553 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Similar set-up for today as we have seen the past few days.
Scattered coastal showers have already developed and will persist
through the morning hours with isolated thunderstorms possibly
making their way north of I-10 during the afternoon. Have kept the
PROB30s for TS in the TAFs for IAH southwards during the
afternoon. Any storms that develop will dissipate by the evening
with the loss of daytime heating, but coastal showers will likely
re-emerge near daybreak tomorrow. Patchy fog has developed at CXO
again this morning, but will be dissipating within the next few
hours giving way to VFR conditions area-wide today with south-
southeasterly winds around 7-12kt. The patchy fog will likely
return to CXO late tonight, but there may also be some low CIGs
causing MVFR conditions at our northern terminals (CXO, UTS, and
CLL) late tonight as well.
Fowler
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Light to moderate southeasterly winds and 2 to 4 foot seas will
prevail going into midweek. There will be a daily risk of
scattered showers and thunderstorms today and tomorrow. Winds
become southwesterly to westerly on Wednesday as a frontal
boundary approaches. Showers/storms, some locally heavy, are
expected to accompany the frontal boundary as it pushes offshore.
Drier air filters into the region behind the front. Gusty north to
northwest winds are expected on Thursday, possible warranted
caution flags.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  93  74  95  75 /  20   0  20  20
Houston (IAH)  91  77  92  78 /  40   0  50  10
Galveston (GLS)  88  81  89  81 /  50  20  50  20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion