La Crescenta, California Weather Forecast Discussion

059
FXUS66 KLOX 030921
AFDLOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
221 AM PDT Fri Oct 3 2025
.SYNOPSIS...03/220 AM.
The beginning of October will continue the trend of cooler than
normal weather into next week. Gusty northerly winds will impact
portions of Santa Barbara, Ventura, and Los Angeles Counties and
the coastal waters this afternoon through late tonight. Little
changes in sensible weather into next week, but the end of next
week is hinting at an active pattern.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...03/219 AM.
A trough will continue moving to the east across California
through tonight and the associated cold front is currently
extending from Mammoth Lakes all the way through Los Angeles
County. Latest CAMs show all potential shower and thunderstorm
activity to the north and east of our CWA, but a stray shower or
two may develop near the northern Ventura/Los Angeles County
border with Kern County early this morning.
Sundowner winds with isolated gusts to 45 mph will continue into
early this morning, but the stronger and more widespread round of
Sundowners is expected tonight, with gusts up to 50 mph across
portions of southern Santa Barbara County, thus a wind advisory
has been issued. Strongest winds will generally be confined to
the Santa Ynez Mountains and foothills along with the coasts west
of Goleta, but Santa Barbara City and Goleta will likely see
northerly winds up to 30 mph at times this afternoon into the
evening. Gusty winds will impact the eastern and southeastern
portion of SB County through the northern and northwestern portion
of Ventura County as well, and additional wind advisories may be
needed. In Addison to Sundowners, northerly winds up to 40 mph
will impact much of northern Los Angeles County, but wind
advisories have been issued for the windiest areas including the
I-5 corridor from the Santa Clarita Valley to the Kern County
border, along with the northwestern Antelope Valley and foothills.
Some lighter offshore winds will occur Saturday
As far as temperatures go, almost the entirety of the area will
see highs max out in the 70s today, with Central Coast beaches
remaining in the upper 60s. Although, a lack of marine layer cloud
coverage may lead to slightly warmer temperatures along the
Central Coast. Temps will rise a few degrees in most places
Saturday thanks offshore wind trends. Not expecting a ton of day
to day changes in temps in the remainder of the short term.
The marine layer is beginning to fill in, especially across
Ventura and LA Counties, but it remains fairly disorganized at the
moment. Expecting coverage tonight into Sunday morning to be less
widespread as winds trend offshore. Minimal marine layer coverage
is expected until overnight Sunday into Monday morning.
.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...03/219 AM.
Not much to talk about in the beginning of the extended forecast.
Morning and nighttime low clouds should become more expansive in
the beginning of next week as both west to east and south to north
pressure gradients become more positive. Little day to day
changes are expected in the way of the sensible weather, with the
exception of a slight warming trend across the interior as onshore
downsloping winds will lead to some adiabatic heating.
A bit further out into the Thursday through Saturday time frame,
there is the possibility of some subtropical moisture moving into
the area as models indicate another tropical storm develops off
the Baja Mexico coast (in addition to the currently named TS
Octave). An interesting setup may be brewing as a colder trough
digs south and moves into the California Coast sometime next
weekend and may be able to tap into some of that tropical
moisture. Confidence in any details remains very low at this time
as models are in disagreement about the track of the tropical
mositure and the timing and location of the trough. However, it is
something to watch for the second half of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...03/0605Z.
At 0434Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 700 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was at 1200 ft with a temperature of 21 C.
High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPMD and KWJF. Max wind gusts may
be off +/- 10 kts at times. Wind direction may vary between 270
and 340 degrees, especially after 18Z.
Low confidence in remaining TAFs due to disorganized nature of
marine layer clouds. Cigs may bounce between SCT and OVC at times
through the morning. Otherwise, minimum flight cats may be off by
one cat and flight cat change times may be off by +/- 3 hours.
West to north winds will increase after 15Z, and max winds may be
off +/- 10 kts at times. For KBUR and KVNY, low confidence in
timing of wind direction shifts.
KLAX...Low confidence in TAF. Flight cat changes may be off by
+/- 3 hours and min cig height may be off +/- 300 ft. .
Disorganized marine layer clouds will cause cigs to bounce between
SCT and OVC through at least 18Z. Winds may gusts up to 30 kts
from the west between 22Z and 03Z. After 06Z Sat, there is a 40%
chance of an east wind component reaching 8 kts through at least
17Z Sat.
KBUR...Low confidence in TAF. Flight cat changes may be off by
+/- 3 hours and min cig height may be off +/- 300 ft.
Disorganized marine layer clouds will cause cigs to bounce between
SCT and OVC through at least 18Z. Timing of wind shifts may be off
by 2 hours
&&
.MARINE...03/213 AM.
A Gale Warning is in effect for the waters around Point
Conception and south to San Nicolas Island as well as across the
entirety of the Santa Barbara Channel this afternoon into the
late night hours. Along with dangerous seas, winds up to 40 kts
are possible. Localized Gale force wind gusts are possible for the
waters nearshore along the Central Coast out to 30 NM from shore
this afternoon. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds will linger
following Gale force winds for the outer waters and portions of
the inner waters thru Saturday night. After Saturday night,
conditions generally look to remain below SCA criteria through
mid-week.
For the waters adjacent to Los Angeles and Orange counties, high
confidence in widespread SCA level NW to W winds this afternoon
through evening, including nearshore (specifically Long Beach &
northward). Localized Gale force winds will occur from Anacapa
Island to Point Mugu and Santa Barbara Island during this period.
Thereafter, conditions generally look to remain below SCA criteria
through mid-week.
Seas will be large and very choppy, peaking between 8 and 12 feet
for the Outer Waters and nearshore Central Coast waters, and 5 to
8 feet for the inner waters south of Point Conception, highest in
the Santa Barbara Channel. Seas may reach 10 feet in the western
Santa Barbara Channel.
These strong NW to W winds and large, choppy seas will create
dangerous boating conditions for many of the nearshore waters
around the islands and at the coasts. These conditions will be
especially dangerous for small vessels. Remain in safe harbor
today through tonight until conditions improve.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 5
      AM PDT Saturday for zones 349-351-352. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from 8 PM this evening to 5 AM PDT
      Saturday for zones 378-381-383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for
      zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 2 PM PDT this afternoon
      for zones 650-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 2 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT
      Saturday for zones 650-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 11 AM this morning to 11
      PM PDT this evening for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zone
      670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Lewis
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...Lewis
SYNOPSIS...Lewis
weather.gov/losangeles
Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS LOX Office Area Forecast Discussion