003 FXUS63 KICT 291105 AFDICTArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 605 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry and seasonably warm weather to persist through the end of the work week.
- Cooler temperatures and maybe some rain chances by the weekend or early next week.
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.DISCUSSION... Issued at 302 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Early this morning, the much discussed deep layer trough over the Desert Southwest is opening up and beginning to progress northeastward. Meanwhile, the mid/upper ridge axis that resided over the central plains yesterday as shifted east and is generally over the Mississippi River Valley this morning. Just enough ascent overspreading the central plains will allow for increasing cloud cover throughout the day. As such, a moderation in temperatures is expected for this afternoon with highs generally in the low to mid 80s. This trough will pass over the region on Tuesday; however, the lack of moisture will prevent any chances for showers or storms. Extensive cloud cover will gradually decrease Tuesday afternoon as the weakening trough continues northeastward, and afternoon highs will once again rise into the low to mid 80s. Another weak mid/upper ridge build in from the southwest by Wednesday, and seasonably warm and dry conditions are expected through the end of the work week. Global models beyond Friday have been relatively consistent in showing a rather strong deep layer trough finally breaking up this monotonous pattern, bringing more fall-like temperatures and potentially some chances for showers and storms this weekend into early next week. It`s still a bit too soon to hammer down exact details, but stay tuned to the forecast for updates throughout the week.
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.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 601 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Patchy areas of fog are possible this morning across portions of southeast Kansas. Otherwise, VFR conditions are likely to prevail after 15Z and through the rest of the TAF period. Surface winds will remain around 4 to 10 knots out of the south over the next 24 hours.
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.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None.
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DISCUSSION...JC AVIATION...JC
NWS ICT Office Area Forecast Discussion