Lafayette, Ohio Weather Forecast Discussion

655
FXUS63 KIWX 240518
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
118 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- An active weather period will continue through Thursday with
  numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms. Severe weather
  is not expected at this time.
- High temperatures will range from 70 to around 80 degrees,
  with lows in the 50s and 60s.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 745 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Convection continues to slowly whither this evening with the
loss of daytime heating and E/SE movement into drier and more
stable air. Still, isolated pockets of brief heavy rain can be
expected along/south of US-24 for the next few hours. Made some
cuts to PoP`s for the overnight hours and into Wednesday. Latest
hi-res guidance (supported by recent satellite and radar trends)
suggests the vort max and associated rain moving into the OH
Valley will remain just south/southeast of our area with only a
glancing shot of steady rain for our far SE and eastern counties
late tonight into Wed. Sporadic showers are expected further NW
through tomorrow as minor shortwaves continue to pinwheel around
Michigan upper low but these will likely remain more isolated
given better moisture, instability, and forcing is shunted S/SE.
Finally, fog is possible again tonight given widespread rain/
moist surface. However, solid deck of low-midlevel clouds will
stifle radiational cooling and for now, fog looks to remain
patchy and not dense. Will monitor closely through the overnight
though.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 105 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
A line of showers and thunderstorms has been slowly sagging
southeast ahead of a stationary front that is draped across
Lower Michigan southwestward into northern Illinois. This
activity will continue to progress across northern Indiana this
afternoon and evening and eventually into northwest Ohio
tonight. There is decent instability of around 1500 J/kg, but
shear is weak, so severe weather is not expected. However, small
hail will be possible in some of the more robust storms.
An upper low over the northern Great Lakes will then start to
drop south tonight and interact with a stronger shortwave moving
up from the southwest into the Ohio Valley. This will be a focus
for heavier rain on Wednesday, mainly southeast of US 24. The
shortwave will move east of the area during the afternoon, but
the upper trough axis will still be over the region, allowing
northerly low-level flow to usher in cooler air, and highs will
struggle to reach 70 degrees. The low will continue to impact
the region on Thursday with scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms.
Dry conditions will return Friday through the middle of next
week as large scale troughing shifts east and high pressure
builds back into the middle of the country. Mild temperatures
can then be expected over the weekend with highs in the mid to
upper 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 112 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
As expected given saturated ground conditions and light winds
into the overnight hours, patchy dense fog has developed. The
Kankakee River Valley currently has visibilities between 3 miles
to as low as 1/2 miles. I`d expect fog to increase in coverage
over the next few hours across the forecast area, especially in
areas that did get rain yesterday. The NBM has 30-40% probabilities
for IFR celings and visibilities at KSBN and KFWA between 3-9 AM
this morning. Have updated TAFs to have a TEMPO group for 1 mile
visibilites and ceilings down to 500ft. It`s possible that the
terminals get even lower visibilities down to 1/2 to 1/4 mile
but I don`t have high enough confidence to include that in the
TAFs. Will monitor for any updates as needed in the next few
hours. Fog is expected to dissipate a few hours after sunrise.
Scattered showers and storms will be possible once again today
along a stationary front, with the best chances along and south
of US-24 in the afternoon and evening. Winds will be variable
today, but will ultimately become north/northeast by the end of
the day.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AGD
DISCUSSION...Cobb
AVIATION...Johnson

NWS IWX Office Area Forecast Discussion