302 FXUS65 KFGZ 061052 AFDFGZArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 352 AM MST Mon Oct 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Expect pleasant Fall-like weather for the first half of the week. Unsettled conditions and increasing shower and thunderstorm chances return to the area during the second half of the week and last through the weekend.
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.DISCUSSION...High pressure will gradually build into Arizona from the southeast through mid week. This will lead to pleasant weather with daytime temperatures gradually warming to 5-10 degrees above normal by Wednesday. Southwesterly afternoon breezes in the 10-15 mph range are forecast. There is a 10-20% chance of a shower or thunderstorm in Apache County Wednesday afternoon as some moisture may push westward into that area.
Thursday through the weekend - forecast models are in decent agreement in the overall weather pattern, the ridge shifting even farther west and the trough remaining over the west coast through Friday and then pushing eastward into our region for the weekend. This places Arizona in enhanced south-southwesterly flow and is expected to pull significant amounts of moisture northward. Grand ensemble mean precipitable water increases from
NWS FGZ Office Area Forecast Discussion