Lathrop, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

583
FXUS63 KEAX 222003
AFDEAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
303 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Conditional risk for severe storms in NW MO late this evening early
  tonight. Low probability of occurrence but if storms do move
  into the area, strong winds and quarter size hail possible.
- More widespread showers and storms move into the area early Tuesday
  morning. Locally heavy rainfall and a few strong wind gusts
  possible.
- Chance for rain continues into Wednesday. No strong or severe
  storms are expected.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
For this evening and into the early overnight hours, there is a
conditional risk for severe weather in far northwestern MO.
Shortwave ridging over eastern KS and western MO, extending into
southeastern NE, will suppress convective development this afternoon
and potentially until late this evening. This suppression, along with
a unseasonably moist airmass, will help lead to strong instability
development in eastern NE this afternoon. As that shortwave ridging
shifts east and becomes more neutral, convection may initialize in
eastern to south central NE. This may not occur until 03Z tonight or
later and likely will occur on or in the vicinity of weak front
through the area. This activity would need to congeal and build/
propagate southward to affect northwestern MO and that may not occur
until near midnight or later. If storms do survive that late and
move into northwestern MO, strong winds and quarter size hail would
be possible. If storms do not make it into northwest MO tonight, it
would take until tomorrow morning. It is entirely possible, if not
likely, that storms do not affect northwestern MO, hence the
conditional risk.
Storms tomorrow morning look much more likely given the
pattern. As the nocturnal low-level jet strengthens east of a
trough moving out of the High Plains, strong moisture transport
surges into eastern KS and west-central to southwestern MO.
Models show a consistent pattern with some variability in
location and timing. But the over all pattern favors storms
developing in central to southeastern KS and then quickly moving
northeast with the low-level flow ahead of the shortwave. This
moves storms into eastern KS and western MO around 12Z, with
continued easterly/northeasterly propagation through the morning
hours. The threat of severe weather looks low at this time
given the unfavorable timing in the morning and weak
instability. But forcing looks strong within diffluent upper
flow and increasing shear. So can`t rule out some strong wind
gusts, especially with the leading storms that would potentially
have access to better instability. The other aspect tomorrow is
the potential for locally heavy rainfall. Overall, it looks
like most areas along and south of the Missouri River are likely
to see at least an inch, with most of that coming between 12Z
Tuesday and 00Z Wednesday. With dry soils due to worsening
drought conditions, the threat of flash flooding looks low, and
hourly flash flood guidance is higher than our total forecast
rainfall. Given this, the area should be able to absorb most of
the rainfall and we`ll hold off any flood watches at this time.
Unsettled weather, with scattered showers and few storms will
continue into Wednesday as the upper wave rotates through the
region. Instability looks weak, even with the colder aloft moving
over the area. With it being cloudy, we just can`t build much, if
any, instability which limits the potential for storms. By Wednesday
evening, as the upper trough axis pushes south of the area,
precipitation chances will come to an end. For late in the forecast
period, temperatures trend back to above normal as the western upper
ridge builds back over the middle of the country.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Fog and low clouds have burned of/lifted at all sites, with the
exception of IXD, which should occur within the next 1-2 hours
based on satellite trends. That will leave VFR conditions for
all sites through the rest of the afternoon and likely most of
the overnight. Tomorrow morning, an area of showers and storms
is likely to move into eastern KS and western MO. MVFR ceilings
and visibility are likely with as this precipitation moves into
the area. Could also see periods of IFR conditions but given
some uncertainty with timing and potential intensity, will stick
with prevailing MVFR for now.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB

NWS EAX Office Area Forecast Discussion