Lauderdale-By-The-Sea, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

296
FXUS62 KMFL 081112
AFDMFL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
712 AM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 334 AM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Model and synoptic analyses depict a deep mid/upper lvl trough
descending upon the US east coast, while a sfc stationary boundary
remains stretched across the central Gulf and central Fl. An
attendant low meanders around the eastern Gulf waters. Meanwhile,
the northern half of the peninsula remains at the base of the
trough, which may contribute a little better dynamic support for
stronger thunderstorms this afternoon.
In general, the synoptic setup will be very similar to the previous
days as abundant moisture remains trapped across SoFlo, with PWATs
from MFL upper air and model soundings remaining in the 2.2-2.5"
range. NBM and ensembles keep high-end POPs in place for the short
term, mainly in the 75 to 85 percent range each afternoon. Also,
pressure gradients remain very weak, with light S/SW flow prevailing
across the area.
Sea breeze boundaries should again be the focal points for deeper
convection. High-res solutions show max rainfall in the 1-2" in
general, but with potential for locally isolated 3" or higher. WPC
is keeping all of SoFlo under a marginal risk of excessive
rainfall (level 1 of 4), mainly for this afternoon, along with
potential for isolated risk of flash flooding. Slow-moving or
stationary thunderstorms over urban areas may produce the ideal
conditions for significant flooding in urban metro areas. Some
storms may become strong (isolated severe cells possible), with
main hazards being gusty winds, lightning strikes and heavy rain.
Similar to yesterday, the expected widespread cloud cover in the
afternoon hours should not preclude daytime heating during the
morning hours. Therefore, max temps should again reach the upper
80s over northern areas, and low-mid 90s elsewhere before shower
and thunderstorm activity intensifies.
The overall weather pattern continues on Tuesday, with the
aforementioned stationary front still lingering across C FL
keeping abundant moisture in place. Max POPs also remain in the
75-85% range, and a repeat of daytime heating/sea breeze and
outflow boundary interactions.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 334 AM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
The rather soggy/moist weather pattern continues through much of the
week as model guidance keep a lingering front around C FL through at
least Thursday, then very slowly pushing it southward through the
weekend. The above normal moisture will linger over SoFlo, with
ensembles still showing potential for a low developing around the
northern portions of the peninsula later in the week. Uncertainty
remains high regarding the details of this feature and its
potential impacts.
The overall wet pattern should continue through the end of the work
week. The risk of flooding will likely peak in the Wed-Thu
timeframe as the boundary slides into the southern tip of the
peninsula. Then beginning on Fri, drier air finally begins to
filter from the north and POPs slowly decrease. But enough remnant
moisture should remain in place for at least high-end scattered
coverage through Sunday.
Maybe the first true change in the ongoing weather pattern will be a
likely drop in temperatures for the weekend with the arrival of a
drier/slightly cooler air mass behind the FROPA. Not much cooler,
but afternoon max temps will likely be in the mid-upper 80s by
Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 710 AM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Generally VFR should prevail until around 16Z, then SCT to NUM
thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening on Monday may
result in brief periods of MVFR/IFR vis/cigs. Light flow will
again become S/SE in the 7-10kt range this afternoon along the
east coast and SW for KAPF.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 334 AM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
A light to moderate south-southwesterly wind continues today
across most of the local waters, becoming generally light and
variable by mid week. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms will be possible each day through the forecast
period with rough seas and gusty winds briefly accompanying
thunderstorms.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            90  77  90  78 /  90  70  70  40
West Kendall     90  76  90  76 /  90  60  70  30
Opa-Locka        90  77  91  77 /  90  70  70  40
Homestead        89  76  89  76 /  80  60  60  30
Fort Lauderdale  90  76  90  77 /  90  70  70  50
N Ft Lauderdale  90  77  91  78 /  90  70  80  50
Pembroke Pines   92  77  92  77 /  90  70  70  40
West Palm Beach  90  76  90  76 /  90  70  80  60
Boca Raton       91  75  91  76 /  90  70  80  50
Naples           90  77  89  77 /  80  70  80  50
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...Redman

NWS MFL Office Area Forecast Discussion