Lent, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

794
FXUS63 KMPX 191735
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1235 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and weak storms on and off throughout the
  day, continuing into early Saturday.
- Further daily shower chances through midweek, followed by
  seasonal and dry weather.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Scattered to widespread showers are ongoing across a portion of
the MPX CWA, primarily across western Minnesota closer to the
upper level low that has been the primary driver behind the
weather pattern over the last few days. There have been a few
rumbles of thunder over the last 6 hours, but calling any of
what is ongoing an actual thunderstorm is a stretch with no
instability to speak of for now. As the upper level low
continues to churn overhead, we can expect continued scattered
showers and some weak thunderstorms throughout the day favoring
the area on the eastern edge of the center of the upper level
low, which continues to look like the western half of the State
with lower coverage of showers in the east. Forecast soundings
from the RAP/NAM show a sneaky setup for some cold air type
funnel clouds primarily during the afternoon and evening with
low level instability and vorticity, coupled with LCL heights at
or just below about 1kft. As with other cold air funnel setups,
these rarely reach the ground and even if they do typically
have rotational velocities below 50kts, akin more to a
thunderstorm wind gust than a tornado in terms of speeds.
Regardless, it will be worth keeping an eye on the radar and sky
if you plan on doing anything outdoors, especially during the
afternoon and evening.
Guidance continues to show a weakening of the upper level
circulation, resulting in the apex of the trough sliding
eastwards by Saturday morning which should also lower the
coverage of showers with weaker lift throughout the column
overnight. There will still be churning lobes of vorticity
within the now broader trough, with isolated to scattered
showers continuing for most of the day, this time favoring
western WI to northern MN based on the position of the best
forcing with both the GFS/CFS producing the greatest CVA over
western WI. The trough continues to churn over the area becoming
less and less focused from Sunday through Tuesday, with
northerly flow aloft returning by Wednesday spelling an end to
the isolated showers. Throughout the 4-5 days of potential
showers, we are not looking at significant PWAT values such that
flooding is expected with rain rates generally staying below
1/4 inch per hour. The synoptic scale guidance which covers the
entire period, including the ensembles, show a general 0.75-1.25
inches across much of the area through Wednesday, with the
highest amounts favored if we do see some isolated
thunderstorms.
Temperature wise, with cloud cover generally remaining prevalent
amidst the rain chances, we should not expect significant
diurnal swings with the airmass not changing much day to day.
Highs generally within the upper 60s to low 70s and lows in the
upper 50s are expected across the area. Due to the lack of
surface response from the upper level low, winds are also going
to be on the lighter side generally under 10mph throughout. This
week will feel like quintessential early autumn with cloudy and
showery weather alongside seasonal temperatures. This is a good
time to see some area-wide rainfall, as once we start to see
some colder low temperatures the preceding rain will help with
some vivid leaf viewing as we head into October and beyond.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Scattered showers and storms will continue to develop across the
region this afternoon (later with eastward extent), as the large
upper-level low near the SD/MN border persists. Have changed
PROB30s this afternoon into TEMPOs for increased confidence in
-TSRA. Cigs should improve slightly to MVFR/VFR with daytime
 heating into this evening before falling again tonight. Rain
 should also end from west to east this evening/tonight. Across
 southern MN (RWF, MKT, MSP) MVFR conditions seem most likely
 with some potential for denser fog near MKT. Farther north and
 east, IFR/LIFR is more likely from falling cigs and fog from
 moisture pooling into the low. Conditions should slightly
 improve by late Saturday morning. Southeasterly winds will slow
 and turn more southerly overnight into Saturday morning.
KMSP...Changed PROB30 to TEMPO for -TSRA this afternoon with
visibilities falling to 3sm within heavier storms. VFR
conditions expected by this evening but cigs should dip to MVFR
for a several hour period Saturday morning. Added a PROB30 for
-TSRA Saturday afternoon for an increasing chance of scattered
 thunderstorms.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...Chc MVFR/-TSRA, mainly P.M. Wind SW 5-10 kts.
MON...Mainly VFR. Slight chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind variable 5 kts.
TUE...Mainly VFR. Slight chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind NE 5-10 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...CTG

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion