Limerick, Maine Weather Forecast Discussion

548
FXUS61 KGYX 181758
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
158 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in place across New England through
today with warm and dry conditions. A cold front moves through
the area tonight, with dry and breezy conditions behind the
front on Friday. High pressure follows for the weekend, bringing
a fresh cool and dry airmass to New England. Light showers are
possible for the first part of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The rest of the afternoon will continue to be quiet weather-
wise with mostly sunny skies, except a little more cloudiness
toward the Midcoast. Southerly flow ahead of a cold front will
push temperatures in the mid-upper 70s across the region,
possibly low 80s in a few spots.
The front will cross through the area tonight, going largely
unnoticed as the atmosphere will be too dry for much in the way
of cloud cover or precip. Behind the front however, upslope
flow will produce more cloud cover in the mountains along with a
low chance (20-30%) of light showers. I don`t have fog in the
forecast in the northern valleys due to more clouds, but patchy
fog is possible in valleys farther south as well as the
Midcoast. Temperatures will range from the upper 40s across
northern valleys to the 50s for the rest of the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The airmass does not change much behind today/tonight`s front,
but weak cold air advection will keep temperatures Friday
slightly cooler than today. Dry air aloft will provide plenty of
sunshine but will also bring low humidity as it mixes down to
the surface. The ongoing dry conditions and low afternoon
humidity will make for elevated fire danger as wind gusts are
forecast to be 20-25 mph at times.
A secondary cold front crosses later in the day with Canadian High
pressure building behind it in Friday night, bringing a much colder
airmass into the region. Skies will be clear, and winds should be
light enough in most place for good radiational cooling,
yielding widespread low temperatures in the 30s away from the
coast with upper 20s possible in the northern valleys. A Freeze
Watch has been issued for Coos county as well as the western ME
mountains, but with these temperatures it`s looking likely that
Frost headlines will also be needed in some areas away from the
coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Another cold night Saturday night will bring the chance for a
  frost/freeze. Temperatures then warm into the beginning of
  next week.
* Mostly dry conditions continue with worsening drought
  expected. There will be a window of showers Mon night - Tues
  night, but light amounts.
Details: Strong surface high pressure, nearing 1030mb MSLP,
will be moving into the region Saturday. The high will be very
dry, and have adjusted dewpoint temp values lower into mid
afternoon Saturday. Forecast soundings show this dry air aloft
and at the surface, but lighter winds than Friday below a
subsidence inversion will limit how much is recognized at the
surface.
The high moves directly overhead for the overnight, and this
will lead to great radiational cooling conditions. Haven`t
changed much from previous forecast here where once again
frost/freeze conditions will be possible. This mainly
encompasses the northern tier of zones including Coos County and
the western ME mountains, but would expect patchy frost past
the foothills and into portions of the interior as well.
The high will be slow to depart into the Gulf of Maine Sunday,
but gradual return flow rebounds temperature into the upper 60s
to around 70 for highs. Warmer overnight temps could limit frost
mention to portions of the mountains/valleys for Sunday night.
Temperatures continue to warm for the first half of the week.
During this time, a broad ribbon of unsettled weather will
slowly track through the forecast area. While Monday remains
dry, some showers may be approaching the mountains by the
evening. A lot of this development will be brought into Tuesday
as a weak warm front lifts through New England. NBM
probabilities of seeing greater than a quarter-inch of rainfall
are slim at around 20% before a cold front slides through during
the Wed/Thurs timeframe.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term...MVFR ceilings may linger near the coast today but
otherwise VFR. Patchy fog/low stratus is possible this evening
and tonight for the southern and coastal terminals while more
clouds may keep fog from developing at HIE and LEB. However, LEB
and HIE could see MVFR to IFR ceilings and possibly shower at
HIE. VFR Friday with breezy northwest winds up to 20 kt, and
conditions look for more favorable for valley fog Friday night,
especially at HIE and LEB.
Long Term...Lighter winds expected Saturday as high pressure
moves overhead. Possible restrictions may be limited to
overnight valley fog as daytime ceilings remain VFR. Next chance
for lower ceilings may not be until early next week when SHRA
move across the forecast area.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds continue to be out of the south today and
then become north to northwest tonight behind a cold front
crosses. A secondary cold front crosses later in the day Friday,
and north to northeast winds may increase to SCA levels Friday
evening into Friday night as strong high pressure builds in from
the north.
Long Term...High pressure moves over the waters Saturday night
into Sunday. Light return flow won`t pick up until the high is
further over the Gulf of Maine Sunday afternoon. Would expect a
lull in wave heights when the high is overhead, generally 1 to 2
ft, with waves increasing again Sunday evening and Monday 3 to 4
ft.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Post frontal northwesterly winds may gust up to around 25 mph on
Friday. This combined with relative humidity values dropping
into the 30 to 40 percent range, possibly lower than 30 percent
in some areas will make for elevated fire weather concerns.
Saturday will be less breezy but much drier as an Arctic
originating airmass builds into the region. Relative humidity
values are expected to drop into the 20-30 percent range which,
despite light winds, will continue elevated fire weather
concerns, especially if fuels are readily available.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning
     for MEZ007>009.
NH...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning
     for NHZ001-002.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Combs
SHORT TERM...Combs
LONG TERM...Cornwell

NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion