Lorida, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

279
FXUS62 KTBW 061810
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
210 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
With troughing continuing across the E CONUS and the broad low in
the Gulf, the subtropical ridging has been suppressed more than
anticipated. Thus, a weak WSW flow has taken over as the prevailing
flow. As moisture has rebounded today, showers and thunderstorms
continue to develop across the FL peninsula. This will continue
through the remainder of the day as PWATs have now increased over 2
inches and the dry slot over N Florida continues to erode.
The expectation is that conditions will continue to become more
saturated in regions where the drier air is currently present,
favoring additional shower and thunderstorm activity beginning in
the pre-dawn hours along the coast. Through the day tomorrow,
storms should transition inland as the WSW flow continues. If this
dry slot does not erode as quickly as anticipated, then this
could delay convective initiation tomorrow morning around the
Tampa Bay region and perhaps across the Nature Coast as well. This
will be something to watch, but generally think this outcome is
the less likely scenario.
Troughing remains across the E CONUS through the week ahead,
favoring additional shortwave perturbations that propagate across
Florida as another weak frontal boundary stalls over Central
Florida. This could lead to some stormier periods during the week
ahead, but it will continue to depend on exactly where the boundary
stalls out. Drier and more stable air will likely reside on the
north side, with a more humid and unstable airmass on the southern
end. Overall, though, the pattern will largely maintain status quo.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 208 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop through the
afternoon, but the bulk of the activity should gradually
transition inland by the evening hours. Periods of MVFR to IFR
conditions will be possible, along with gusty winds as storms move
over terminals. It looks likely that convection will again begin
early tomorrow as showers and thunderstorms develop over the Gulf
and move onshore in the pre-dawn hours. Most of this early
activity should be showers, but thunderstorms will become
increasingly likely as the day progresses. The bulk of these
storms should transition inland by early afternoon around Tampa
Bay, but will linger along the SWFL coast through the day. A
similar pattern will repeat through mid-week.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 208 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible at really anytime
across coastal waters. However, the greatest chances will reside
during the overnight and early morning hours. This pattern will
repeat for the next several days, with some gusty winds in the
vicinity creating locally hazardous winds and seas. Otherwise, winds
and seas should remain fairly light.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 208 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Ample moisture and humidity will keep scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms in the forecast over the next few days as a
generally more WSW flow prevails. There are no significant fire
weather concerns.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  90  77  89 /  40  50  30  80
FMY  76  90  75  89 /  40  80  40  80
GIF  76  92  75  90 /  50  70  40  80
SRQ  76  90  75  89 /  30  60  30  80
BKV  73  90  72  88 /  40  50  30  80
SPG  78  88  77  87 /  30  50  30  80
&&
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 1
For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
Flannery

NWS TBW Office Area Forecast Discussion