864 FXUS64 KJAN 161953 AFDJANArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 253 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
...New DISCUSSION...
.DISCUSSION... Issued at 251 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Overall, the forecast continues to look warm and relatively dry for the most part with above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall.
Through tonight: Isolated thunderstorms will continue to develop in association with the upper low centered over the southeast CONUS. Cyclonic flow and lift associated with the low will continue to interact with and abundance of moisture and instability to support a few strong to severe storms. The storms should peak prior to sunset, but a few storms will likely linger into the evening. /EC/
Wednesday through Monday night: The remainder of the forecast will see a pattern breakdown as centers of upper-level low pressure over the Northern Rockies and the eastern CONUS weaken. Flow across the CONUS should become zonal by the weekend, but there will still be some opportunity for shortwave trough amplification that could yield more areal coverage of showers and thunderstorms possible, especially as the western system pivots through the central part of the country. Average temps will still be a little warmer than normal - about 3 to 5 degrees warmer than normal on most days. /NF/EC/
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.AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
VFR conditions prevail with scattered mid to high level clouds and light and variable winds. A brief, isolated storm cannot be ruled out at any given site, especially along and south of I-20; but confidence is too low to include in the TAF. /SAS/OAJ/
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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 69 91 68 93 / 10 10 0 0 Meridian 67 92 66 93 / 0 10 0 0 Vicksburg 69 92 68 92 / 20 10 0 10 Hattiesburg 67 94 66 94 / 0 10 0 0 Natchez 69 91 67 92 / 10 10 0 0 Greenville 69 94 68 93 / 10 10 0 10 Greenwood 68 94 67 94 / 10 10 0 0
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.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.
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EC/NF/SAS/OAJ/
NWS JAN Office Area Forecast Discussion