Lorraine, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

811
FXUS63 KICT 091134
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
634 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered shower and isolated thunderstorm activity is
  possible across eastern Kansas this morning.
- More storm chances Wednesday morning and Thursday morning; small
  rain chances for late weekend
- A warming trend is expected through the end of the week with
  highs nearing 90 degrees for some locations.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
Rain activity across the forecast area has diminished considerably,
though a couple of showers have begun to develop across our
southeastern Kansas counties as the shortwave trough shifts into
eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Satellite imagery also depicts
cloud cover generally east of I-135 with mostly clear skies across
central Kansas. We will continue to see a resurgence of convection
across eastern Kansas through the overnight hours as the main
impulse of the shortwave traverses the region. We`re not
anticipating severe weather tonight as the better instability and
shear will be located further south and west over southwest Kansas
and northwest Oklahoma. But with PWATs in the neighborhood of 1.5",
locally heavy rain will once again be a threat.
For today, we will see clearing conditions through the morning hours
as clouds and rain chances shift off to the east. Temperatures will
rebound into the 80s across the area, with middle 80s expected for
central Kansas where mostly sunny conditions will prevail.
Additional overnight showers and storms are expected as another weak
impulse interacts with the LLJ later tonight. Minimal impacts are
expected, but additional areas of heavy rain are possible.
As we move through the week, the ridge to our west will continue to
build back over the region. This will support the gradual warming
trend with highs in the lower to middle 80s for Wednesday and
temperatures soaring past normal through the end of the week and
into Saturday with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. With
the top of the ridge axis centered overhead through Thursday, we
could see low rain chances with any of the small perturbations in
the pattern that pass across the region. Then, towards the end of
the period, a deep though not incredibly strong trough will shift
into the Plains beginning on Saturday night. This will displace the
ridge further south and east and will moderate our temperatures
closer to normal for this time of year with highs in the middle 80s
expected for Sun-Tue.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 632 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
VFR conditions expected through the period. Spotty showers and
thunderstorms may impact CNU through 15Z, minimal impacts are
expected. Otherwise, gusty southerly winds this morning will
begin to diminish and turn southeasterly this afternoon. Slight
chance of showers/storms for central Kansas sites toward the
very end of the TAF period, chose not to include any mention due
to low confidence at this time.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...AMD

NWS ICT Office Area Forecast Discussion