Los Luceros, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

885
FXUS65 KABQ 160707
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
107 AM MDT Tue Sep 16 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1135 PM MDT Mon Sep 15 2025
- Showers and thunderstorms with gusty outflow winds and brief
  heavy downpours will return to southern, central, and eastern
  parts of New Mexico Tuesday and Wednesday, then continue east of
  the central mountain chain Wednesday night.
- Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible east of
  the central mountain chain Tuesday afternoon and evening. Then,
  scattered severe thunderstorms are increasingly likely across
  far northeast New Mexico Wednesday afternoon and evening with a
  few producing locally heavy rainfall.
- There will be a minor risk of burn scar flash flooding on
  Tuesday and a minor to moderate risk on Wednesday. The threat
  for burn scar flash flooding may persist Thursday and Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 1135 PM MDT Mon Sep 15 2025
A relatively weak upper low near the tri-state area of ID/MT/WY
will slowly drop southeastward into the central Great Plains today
and Wednesday. This feature will be led by a 60-70 kt speed max
aloft at 300 mb that will drop toward the Four Corners and NM-CO
border. Meanwhile a subdued upper level ridge over the Mexican
mainland is keeping the flow much lighter to our south, and
tropical storm Mario is tracking northward near 22N, 116W
(west southwest of the Baja Peninsula). At the surface, winds have
been taking on more of a southerly component which is advecting
suptropical moisture into NM, ad a few eastern plains sites are
already observing 60 degree F dewpoints. While these will mix down
some into the afternoon, a much broader swath of 40`s to 50`s
dewpoints will be observed later this afternoon over the
southeastern half of the forecast area, and PWATs will climb to
two-thirds of an inch upwards to near 1.0 inch in this sector.
This will bring a notable increase in storms from the past couple
of days, but coverage should still be isolated to scattered
(20-50% spatial coverage), generally stretching from the
southwest and south central mountains northward to the Jemez and
Sangre de Cristos before drifting east southeastward to nearby
lower elevations. With the speed max aloft over northern NM,
enough shear would be present to enhance updraft longevity, and a
lone strong to severe cell or two would be possible, mainly in
Colfax, Harding, and Union counties. Drier, high-based storms over
the Zuni mountains, Grants, Cuba and western Jemez would have
larger DCAPE profiles with a higher downburst threat and much
less rainfall efficiency. All storms would gradually become
outflow dominant and gust out late this evening as they roll into
the highlands and high plains to the east of the central mountain
chain.
By Wednesday, the initial upper low would move just east of the NE
panhandle with a secondary shortwave trailing and dropping into
south central WY. The speed max aloft would strengthen slightly
over northern NM, and drier air would filter into northwestern NM,
sharpening the moisture and PWAT gradient. The southwestern and
south central mountains would initiate convection Wednesday
afternoon with a few cells potentially going up over the Sangre de
Cristos, but the northeastern zones will likely not get too active
until the evening when a surface front arrives with increased moisture
and surface convergence. These storms in northeastern NM would
have the potential to turn severe with large directional shear
profiles.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1135 PM MDT Mon Sep 15 2025
With the help of convection in northeastern to east central NM,
the front will push toward the Rio Grande valley Wednesday night
with most current model projections struggling to advance it much
beyond. This will keep a sharp surface moisture gradient between
the northwestern quarter of NM and remaining areas. Consequently,
storms will be mostly void in the northwest Thursday afternoon
with generally scattered cells elsewhere as surface winds veer
more southerly. The upper level pattern will keep a slow moving,
weak multi-vortex upper low over the central plains into the
northern Rockies and the speed max persisting over northeastern
NM. By this time Thursday, the remnants from former tropical storm
Mario are projected to be offshore of southern CA, drawing up an
anomalously high mass of subtropical moisture.
Going into Friday, the remnants and associated moisture from Mario
and the interactions with any upstream cold core perturbations
will be items of interest. Current projections keep most of the
deepest moisture in southern CA and southern AZ with more
difficulty getting the deepest moisture east toward the
Continental Divide as Mario`s remnants get sheared apart between
CA and the Great Basin. Still, an increase in moisture over
western NM does appear to take place Friday. Into the weekend, the
upper high establishes itself back over the Mexican mainland with
minor influence from the westerlies over NM. This would likely
reduce PWATs outside of the southern third of the state, leading
to a day-by-day reduction in storms this weekend. Deterministic
models resolve a cut-off low meandering over the eastern Pacific
into southern CA by Monday and Tuesday of next week, but the
Mexican high could amplify enough to block the low from trekking
toward NM according to current depictions.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1135 PM MDT Mon Sep 15 2025
A couple of stray showers may develop in far east central New
Mexico early Tuesday morning, but otherwise activity will remain
minimal. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
return to portions of New Mexico Tuesday afternoon and evening,
mainly across the southwestern to north central and northeastern
areas. Storms will be capable of producing gusty downburst winds
(especially near KGNT, KABQ, KAEG, KLAM, and KSAF) and brief
downpours. Most of the storm activity will dwindle through the
evening Tuesday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1135 PM MDT Mon Sep 15 2025
Isolated to scattered showers return to portions of northern and
central NM today and Wednesday. The best prospects of wetting
rainfall will be found in the southwestern mountains and the
south central highlands, as well as the northeastern plains once
a front arrives Wednesday evening. Temperatures will be seasonable
today and Wednesday, and true to form, the driest areas will be
in northwestern NM where dewpoints will be lowest and afternoon RH
will plummet to 15 percent or slightly lower each day. Any wind
concerns will stem from thunderstorm outflows with the drier
storms over the Zuni mountains, Mount Taylor, and western Jemez
being more prone to gusty downbursts and even dry lightning
strikes. Storms will stay active Thursday over the southwestern
mountains and also along and east of the central mountain chain
with the driest area remaining in northwestern zones. There is
some uncertainty with Friday`s storm coverage forecast, but for
now it appears the focus will temporarily shift back over the
Continental Divide with increased moisture there. However, by the
weekend a drier and less stormy trend will get underway.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  83  52  84  53 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  79  41  79  39 /   0   5  20  10
Cuba............................  80  47  78  48 /   0   0  20  20
Gallup..........................  81  45  81  48 /   0   0  10   5
El Morro........................  78  50  78  49 /   0   0  30  20
Grants..........................  81  47  82  49 /   0   0  30  20
Quemado.........................  81  50  78  51 /  10  10  50  30
Magdalena.......................  80  55  77  55 /   5  10  60  40
Datil...........................  77  49  75  50 /   5  10  60  40
Reserve.........................  85  50  84  51 /  10  10  60  40
Glenwood........................  89  54  88  55 /   5  10  60  40
Chama...........................  71  43  73  41 /   0   0  30  20
Los Alamos......................  75  53  75  53 /   0   0  30  30
Pecos...........................  78  48  76  49 /   0   0  30  30
Cerro/Questa....................  75  47  75  47 /   0   0  20  20
Red River.......................  65  39  66  39 /   0   0  30  20
Angel Fire......................  69  33  70  35 /   0   0  30  20
Taos............................  77  45  78  45 /   0   0  20  20
Mora............................  75  44  73  45 /   0   0  30  20
Espanola........................  82  49  83  51 /   0   0  20  30
Santa Fe........................  78  52  78  53 /   0   0  20  20
Santa Fe Airport................  80  48  80  50 /   0   0  20  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  82  61  83  61 /   0   0  30  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  86  57  86  57 /   0   0  20  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  87  56  88  56 /   0   0  20  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  85  55  86  58 /   0   0  20  20
Belen...........................  87  54  87  56 /   0   0  30  30
Bernalillo......................  85  54  87  57 /   0   0  20  20
Bosque Farms....................  86  53  86  55 /   0   0  20  20
Corrales........................  86  55  87  58 /   0   0  20  20
Los Lunas.......................  86  53  86  56 /   0   0  20  20
Placitas........................  82  56  82  56 /   0   0  20  20
Rio Rancho......................  84  56  86  58 /   0   0  20  20
Socorro.........................  87  60  88  60 /   0   5  40  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  78  53  76  52 /   0   0  30  30
Tijeras.........................  79  55  80  53 /   0   0  30  30
Edgewood........................  78  50  79  49 /   0   0  30  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  80  45  81  48 /   0   0  20  30
Clines Corners..................  77  50  75  50 /   0   0  30  30
Mountainair.....................  80  51  79  52 /   0   0  40  30
Gran Quivira....................  79  51  78  52 /   0   0  40  30
Carrizozo.......................  84  56  81  57 /   5   0  30  20
Ruidoso.........................  75  51  73  52 /  10   5  50  10
Capulin.........................  76  47  77  46 /   0   0  10  30
Raton...........................  79  45  79  46 /   0   0  20  20
Springer........................  82  45  81  48 /   0   0  10  20
Las Vegas.......................  77  47  76  48 /   0   0  30  30
Clayton.........................  84  55  83  55 /   0   0  10  30
Roy.............................  80  52  80  52 /   0   0  20  20
Conchas.........................  88  56  86  58 /   0   0  20  20
Santa Rosa......................  86  53  81  56 /   0   0  30  30
Tucumcari.......................  85  55  83  58 /   0   0  10  20
Clovis..........................  87  62  86  61 /   5   5   5  10
Portales........................  87  61  86  61 /  10   5   5   5
Fort Sumner.....................  86  57  85  60 /   0   0  10  10
Roswell.........................  88  62  87  61 /   5   5   5   5
Picacho.........................  84  55  83  55 /   5   5  30  10
Elk.............................  80  52  80  53 /  10  10  40  10
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52

NWS ABQ Office Area Forecast Discussion