Lubec, Maine Weather Forecast Discussion

560
FXUS61 KCAR 260254
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1054 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure crosses the region overnight, then exits across
the Canadian Maritimes Friday. High pressure crosses the region
Saturday and remains just south of the region through Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Update...
Low pressure currently located across southern Maine will lift
northeast across the region overnight. The low will draw a warm
front across the region through the early morning hours, with a
cold front crossing late. An area of rain will cross the region
overnight in advance of the low and warm front, diminishing
late. Could also have an isolated thunderstorm across mostly
central and Downeast portions of the forecast area through
early morning. Areas of fog will also occur overnight.
Temperatures will remain near steady overnight, generally
ranging from the mid to upper 50s north, to the upper 50s to
around 60 Downeast. Have updated to adjust for current
conditions along with expected overnight temperatures and rain
chances.
Previous Discussion...
Widespread beneficial rainfall will help but not drought bust
tonight. A warm sector will push into the Downeast and Central
Highlands which will enhance the PWATs to 200-250 percent of
normal which will be close to daily record levels at GYX and
CAR. Expecting rather good rainfall rates but flooding is not
expected given the severe to extreme drought underway, but we
could see urban poor drainage issues. Due to the warm sector
weak elevated instability and history this afternoon of
lightning on GLM will continue the idea of a few lightning
strikes overnight.
Tomorrow low pressure tracks NE into the Maritimes with surface
high pressure building in from the west. Upper level shortwave
energy will not have cleared yet so rain tapers to just a few
showers in the morning as the cold front pushes east. Skies will
break but cold air aloft will result in more clouds in the
upslope locations of the Longfellow Mtns to Northeast Aroostook
County. W-NW winds 10-15mph tomorrow and will help dry out the
atmosphere. Highs tomorrow will be in the upper 60s to low 70s
north, mid to upper 70s on the downslopes from the Dover-Fox to
Danforth region southward to the coast.
Tomorrow night light NW winds will keep things from decoupling
which means any frost will be isolated in the North Woods. The
frost program has ended in the North Woods. Will need to monitor
the trend if decoupling becomes more widespread. Generally
elsewhere lows in the 40s and near 50F Downeast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Saturday...Quiet day Saturday with stable northwest flow over
the area with high pressure moving in from the west. Extremely
dry airmass with even cumulus clouds appearing unlikely, and
full sunshine in store. Northwest breeze 5-10 mph and highs
ranging from the low to mid 60s north, to the low 70s Downeast.
Saturday Night...Surface high pressure overhead in the evening
moves east of us overnight with increasing clouds from the west.
Looks like a cool night with mid/upper 30s north and mid 40s
Downeast, though temperatures may rise some toward dawn as
clouds increase from the west.
Sunday...Perhaps a few showers in the north in the morning (20
percent chance). 12z GFS and GEFS are a dramatic departure from
previous runs and other ensemble system, and have increased
moisture coming in from the southwest with decent rain Downeast.
Disregarding this solution for now to see if it goes away or if
other models go along. Warmer temperatures Sunday with low/mid
70s and a decent southwest breeze.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Dry and quiet is the story for Sunday night through Friday.
Northwest flow transitions to more northerly flow later Tuesday
into Wednesday, with temperatures falling each day Monday to
Wednesday, then perhaps rising a bit Thursday/Friday.
Temperatures will be in the 70s Monday for highs, but only
around the mid 50s to low 60s Wednesday. Frosty nights are
possible toward midweek. A very strong upper level ridge will
remain to our west this whole time, and will block any potential
tropical systems to our south from getting this far north, and
keep the atmosphere very dry in general.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR overnight with rain and areas of fog. An
isolated thunderstorm also possible across central and Downeast
portions of the region through early morning. IFR/LIFR early
Friday with a chance of rain, then VFR/MVFR during the
afternoon with isolated to scattered showers. Variable
conditions with any fog Friday night. Otherwise, VFR Friday
night. South/southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to
around 20 knots, becoming west/southwest 5 to 10 knots
overnight. South/southwest low level wind shear through early
morning. West/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to
around 20 knots Friday, then 5 to 10 knots Friday night.
SHORT TERM:
Saturday...VFR. NW winds 5 to 10 knots.
Saturday night...Mostly VFR, though localized fog could lead to
patchy IFR after midnight. Light winds.
Sunday...Mostly VFR. W/SW wind 10 kts.
Sunday night...Variable conditions with any patchy fog late.
Otherwise, VFR. W/SW winds 5 kts or less.
Monday and Tuesday...VFR. W wind 5-10 kts...becoming NW on
Tuesday. Gusts 15-20 kts in afternoon hours.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all
the waters overnight through Friday afternoon. Winds/seas below
small craft advisory levels Friday night. Rain with areas of
fog overnight, with an isolated thunderstorm also possible.
Areas of fog Friday morning. Sea surface water temperatures
are 53-57F from the Downeast coast out 25NM and east to the
Hague Line including Passamaquoddy and Penobscot Bays.
SHORT TERM: Winds and seas below small craft through Monday
night. Potential (around 60 percent) for small craft seas
Tuesday to Thursday as long period swells arrive from tropical
systems far south of our waters.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Friday for ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
Near Term...Norcross/Sinko
Short Term...Foisy
Long Term...Foisy
Aviation...Norcross/Foisy
Marine...Norcross/Sinko/Foisy

NWS car Office Area Forecast Discussion