Lwrnce, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

706
FXUS63 KTOP 031901
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
201 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- After above normal temps between 85-90 degrees this weekend,
  a cool down arrives with readings dropping to the 70s next
  week.
- Chances for rain and thunderstorms increase Sunday afternoon,
  becoming most likely over north central Kansas late Sunday
  night- Monday morning.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Upper ridge axis remains anchored across the southern and central
CONUS this afternoon, focusing on the incoming shortwave trough that
will impact portions of the region this weekend. In the meantime,
low level troughing towards the western high plains has induced the
gusty south winds this afternoon, particularly north central areas
where occasional gusts up to 30 mph are observed. Enhanced mixing
and WAA has boosted dewpoints to the low 60s, combined with temps in
the 80s has made it feel close to 90 degrees area wide. Lows this
evening may not cool off as quickly. The boundary layer remains
mixed as a low level jet increases through central Kansas. The south
winds once again increase Saturday afternoon area wide from 15 to 25
mph sustained. Gusts over 30 mph are most common west of highway 75.
As the midlevel jet max ejects into the plains by late Saturday
evening, residual shower and thunderstorms may redevelop ahead of
cold front by early Sunday afternoon. Shower activity should become
more widespread with aid from the h85 jet Sunday night. Highest pops
towards north central KS are supported by the incoming cold front.
Severe probs are low given that mid level lapse rates are weak and
instability values are less than 1000 J/KG.
The spread in NBM pops and subsequent temps lends to uncertainty in
the forecast next Monday and Tuesday. Ensembles are varied on the
location of the embedded vort maxes while the cold front gradually
sags southward through Monday evening. NBM probabilities for at
least 0.25 inches of rainfall through Tuesday are generally located
along and north of I-70. Those numbers drop between 15 to 20% for
QPF amounts of 1 inch.
Remainder of the forecast period is dry and near normal in terms of
temps as a 1030mb sfc ridge overspreads the region into the Great
Lakes. Highs in the 70s become more of the norm. Late next week, an
additional disturbance brings potential rain chances to region.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
VFR with main concern being southerly winds throughout forecast
period. Sustained speeds from 10 to 15 kts this afternoon with
occasional gusts abv 20 kts through 00Z before weakening below
10 kts overnight at KTOP/KFOE. Forecast soundings suggest
stronger low level winds and more mixy sfc conditions at KMHK with
a 40 kt southerly LLJ developing. Don`t believe it is stout
enough to cause LLWS especially if winds stay up around 10 kts.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Prieto
AVIATION...Prieto

NWS TOP Office Area Forecast Discussion