Lyman, Vermont Weather Forecast Discussion

785
FXUS61 KBTV 061827
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
227 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread showers will come to an end from west to east this
evening. Additional showers are expected again later tonight through
Sunday, but with less areal coverage and lighter rainfall amounts.
Drier and cooler weather will prevail for much of next week as high
pressure becomes well established across the region.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 227 PM EDT Saturday...Things have transpired pretty much as
expected so far today. Widespread light to occasionally moderate
rain has now overspread much of the region. The cold front has
pushed through all but perhaps our farthest southeast corner of
Windsor County, and it is here that thunderstorms are still
possible. The window for any strong or severe convection is rapidly
closing for our forecast area however, as the best instability lies
across central/southern New England and into southeastern NY.
Indeed, the latest mesoanalysis shows SB CAPEs in our area are now
250 J/kg or less.
The back side of the precipitation is already pushing eastward
across St Lawrence County at this hour, and this will only continue
through this afternoon and evening. The rain may still be moderate
to perhaps briefly heavy at times until it tapers to an end.
Rainfall amounts have been fairly variable so far, ranging from less
than a tenth of an inch in portions of the south-central Greens, to
more than a half inch from the central Adirondacks across central
and portions of eastern VT. Additional rainfall should generally be
in the 0.25 to 0.50 inch range, though locally higher amounts will
be possible.
There should be a brief break in the precipitation overnight.
However, a weak wave of low pressure will slide along the cold front
late tonight into early Sunday as the boundary continues its slow
trek eastward. Precipitation from this system may spread back into
southern and eastern VT, mainly falling during the early morning
hours. This will be light and should taper to an end by mid day
Sunday as the low moves away and south of the Gulf of Maine. In the
meantime, an upper trough will swing into the Great Lakes, turning
flow toward the southwest. Cooler air aloft will interact with the
relatively warm waters of Lake Ontario to allow lake showers to
develop early Sunday morning, spreading into southern portions of
the St Lawrence Valley. Additional showers will pop up through the
day as the upper trough axis approaches from the west. The bulk of
any showers should be confined to mainly northern areas and along
the international border. Amounts will be pretty light, and the
activity should dissipate as we approach sunset and lose daytime
heating. Lows tonight will be seasonably cool, in the 40s to low/mid
50s, and patchy fog will be possible given the abundant low level
moisture from today`s rain. Sunday should feature partly to mostly
cloudy skies much of the day, with highs in the mid 60s to around
70F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 227 PM EDT Saturday...Much quieter weather is expected for the
start of the work week as high pressure settles over the region.
Mostly clear skies will prevail, and this combined with light winds
will allow for optimal radiational cooling both Sunday night and
Monday night. Monday night in particular will be chilly with the
high cresting right overhead, and some patchy frost will be possible
in the colder hollows of the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom. Most
spots should see lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s however, so any
frost would be localized. Monday itself will be pleasant if a touch
on the cooler side. There will be plenty of sunshine with highs in
the mid 60s to around 70F.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 116 PM EDT Saturday...High pressure anchored over Maine and the
Canadian Maritimes next week is expected to produce dry weather
despite largely cyclonic flow aloft. This will allow high
temperatures to climb into the 70s early and midweek and lows to
fall into the 40s to mid 50s. Sometime on Wednesday we could have a
cold frontal boundary cross the region, causing highs to be cooler
in the 60s and lows as cold as the mid 30s and 40s late week. We`re
not anticipating any notable precipitation with the frontal passage
as a thick layer of dry air will be in place preceding it. If any
showers occur they`ll likely be light, few, brief, and isolated to
terrain.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday...Widespread showers and thunderstorms are
occurring across the forecast area this afternoon, lowering
visibilities and ceilings. Gusty winds and hail could also
occur with any thunderstorm. Rain and thunderstorms should come
to an end around 20Z-22Z Saturday with a few localized showers
lingering until around 23Z Saturday-05Z Sunday. Around this
time, skies will begin to clear from northwest to southeast. Fog
is possible at all TAF sites, but most likely IFR conditions
will be at MPV, SLK, and EFK around 05Z-14Z Sunday due to
increased moisture and proximity to a frontal boundary. Variable
and terrain driven winds tonight will become southerly to
southwesterly tomorrow with gusts 15-25 knots possible at MSS.
Outlook...
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Storm

NWS BTV Office Area Forecast Discussion