Macdill Air Force Base, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

987
FXUS62 KTBW 131745
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
145 PM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 144 PM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Weak ridging is building in at the surface from the north with the
remnant boundary in place across the FL Straits. A trough remains
across the state aloft. Dry air across the area will limit
convection, but a few showers and storms are possible mainly
across the inland and southern regions later this afternoon. Highs
will reach into the upper 80s later this afternoon, with lows
tonight in the mid 60s north to lower to mid 70s coastal and
south.
Drier air with the high pressure and upper trough remains across
the region through mid-week with similar conditions in place
each day...highs in the upper 80s to near 90, lows mid to upper
60s north to the lower to mid 70s central and south, lower rain
chances with the best chances inland and south, and N/NE winds.
For the end of the week, the main upper trough lifts out with a
shortwave moving over the state as deeper moisture lifts northward
across the peninsula and winds become more easterly. Rain chances
increase with overnight lows ranging 70-75 across the area and
highs remaining generally in the upper 80s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 144 PM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025
N/NE flow increasing and becoming gusty in the afternoon, then
diminishing overnight and becoming more NE. Winds increase again
after sunrise and then turn more to the N/NW by noon. VFR
conditions prevail through the period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 144 PM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025
SCEC in place across the Northern and Central coastal waters
through the overnight period, then winds remain more in the
10-15kt range or less through the rest of the period. N/NE flow
becomes more easterly at the end of the period. Rain chances
remain low with drier air lingering through mid-week with ridging
in place across the waters.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 144 PM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Drier air is in place across the area, but it is still moist
enough near the surface to keep min RH values around 50 percent
or greater and allowing for a few showers/storms mainly inland and
south each afternoon. N/NE flow will prevail through mid next
week. Moisture returns thereafter, with rain chances increasing
and winds becoming more easterly.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  73  89  72  90 /  10  20  10  10
FMY  71  89  72  91 /  20  30  10  30
GIF  70  89  70  90 /  10  40   0  20
SRQ  71  89  71  90 /  20  20  10  20
BKV  67  89  66  89 /   0  30   0  10
SPG  74  88  74  88 /  20  20  10  10
&&
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 2
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 2
For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Hubbard
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Davis

NWS TBW Office Area Forecast Discussion