875 FXUS63 KGID 182031 AFDGIDArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 331 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There is a threat of strong to marginally severe storms Friday afternoon and evening mainly across north central Kansas and areas south of I-80 in Nebraska.
- Various rain and storm chances will be present across at least a portion of the area each day.
- High temperatures through the week will range from the upper 60s to mid 80s.
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.DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Today and tonight...
An upper level trough extends from the northern Plains and northern Rocky Mountains southward to the southern Plains. Winds across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas generally range from the south to the northwest. A cold front associated with the upper trough is moving through western Nebraska and western Kansas with high temperatures today ranging from the mid 60s to mid 70s. Upper lift associated with the trough is moving across portions of the area which has contributed to showers and isolated thunderstorms. Any storms that develop are not expected to be severe with low wind shear and mid-level lapse rates present. A surface high will be across the area tonight with light, mostly west to northwest winds. Low temperatures tonight will range from the upper 40s to mid 50s.
Friday through Saturday night...
The upper trough will move a little further east on Friday with some upper lift continuing over the area which will result in more chances (15% to near 35%) of showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms will have the potential to become strong to marginally severe during the late afternoon and evening hours with higher wind shear and mid-level lapse rates present. High temperatures on Friday will be in the upper 60s to low 80s. Low temperatures Friday night will be in the low 50s to low 60s. Light winds will be across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas on Saturday with the upper trough still overhead. High temperatures on Saturday will be in the mid 70s to low 80s. Low temperatures Saturday night will be in the mid 50s to low 60s with light, mostly southerly winds.
Sunday through Wednesday...
Temperatures on Sunday will warm up into the mid 70s to mid 80s. While showers and thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday, they can not be ruled out as an upper trough moves overhead. Low temperatures Sunday night will be in the mid 50s to low 60s. High temperatures on Monday will be similar to the previous day with around a 20% to 35% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low temperatures Monday night will be in the 50s. Rain and storm chances (15% to around 25%) continue Tuesday and Wednesday with an approaching upper trough. Cooler temperatures are expected Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the upper 60s and 70s. Low temperatures these two nights will be mostly in the 50s.
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.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1233 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area later this afternoon. Winds will generally range from the south to the west and northwest by 00z. Winds will become northerly by 15z to 18z Friday. Wind gusts up to around 15 to 20 knots are possible this afternoon. Low ceilings are possible tonight into tomorrow morning but more likely in KGRI than KEAR.
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.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None.
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DISCUSSION...Schuldt AVIATION...Schuldt
NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion