Malott, Washington Weather Forecast Discussion

584
FXUS66 KOTX 091157
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
457 AM PDT Tue Sep 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and thunderstorms expanding across the region Tuesday
  through Thursday.
- Areas of smoke and haze through the week, especially near
  wildfires.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
The chance for showers and thunderstorms across the region will
increase Tuesday through Thursday. While some areas have seen an
improvement in air quality, areas of smoke and haze is expected
to continue through the week, especially near wildfires.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday: The low pressure system off the coast of the
PNW will continue making its way eastward into the area, bringing
moisture and unsettled weather to the region for the next few days.
Days with best chances of wetting rains include today and Thursday,
though there are chances for widespread but very light showers on
Wednesday. Later this morning, there is a 20-40 percent chance of
wetting rains (0.10 inches or more) in the Cascades. On Thursday,
the Lewiston, Pullman, Camas Prairie, Blues, and Central Idaho
areas have a 50 percent chance or more of seeing wetting rains.
With the lift and instability provided by the low, today through
Thursday see continued widespread chances (10-20 percent) for
afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Areas where rainfall
amounts are higher have a better chance (20 percent and above)
at seeing some stronger thunderstorms. While PWATs through
Thursday will be 100-150 percent of normal, they increase to
150-200 percent of normal on Thursday. These wetter
thunderstorms could bring localized heavy rainfall rates in
addition to gusty winds and small hail. Burn scars may have to
be monitored for any flash flooding concerns should any stronger
thunderstorms move over them. Temperatures today and tomorrow
will be in the mid 80s, but then will cool down to the mid to
high 70s by Thursday, which is right around normal for this time
of year. Relative humidities will also improve through the
week.
Friday through Sunday: With PWATs continuing to be 150-200 percent
of normal through next weekend, chances of more widespread wetting
rains increase Saturday through Sunday. There will be a brief
transition on Saturday between the current low moving out of the
area and another low moving in right behind it. Temperatures will
increase slightly on Saturday, but will come right down on Sunday as
the low makes its way inland. Cluster analysis seems to favor this
as well, with lower heights moving over the area for all clusters.
The location of where these lower heights will be is still unclear.
Temperatures will continue lowering slightly and into the mid 70s
over the weekend. Early next week has much less cluster agreement,
but early signals are beginning to show higher heights and a slight
increase in temperatures.
Smoke and haze, especially near wildfires, is expected to
continue through the week. An Air Quality Alert has been issued
for parts of Washington and Idaho and currently go through
midday Thursday. /AS
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Hit and miss showers and thunderstorms will be of
concern for most terminals for the next 24 hours as embedded
waves rotate into the Inland Northwest around an upper-level
closed low moving into the PNW. Through 16/17Z, the best
chances will be across central Washington, including KEAT, KMWH,
KEPH. A secondary area of showers with occasional thunderstorms
is moving north from Colville to Northport. Cells could contain
gusty outflow winds up to 30 kt and brief heavy rain. There
exists a small chance for afternoon thunderstorms across most
sites 21Z-00Z, but confidence was not high enough to include in
the TAFs outside of KEAT/KMWH. High resolution models are
showing a broader chance for showers beginning in southeast
Washington/southern Idaho Panhandle after 03Z and moving west
and north through the evening. Conditions are expected to
remain VFR through the period, though a brief reduction to MVFR
could result if a heavier shower moves over a TAF site.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
in VFR conditions. High confidence in showers/thunderstorms to
impact KMWH/KEAT this morning, but low confidence for afternoon
showers or thunderstorms to impact terminals.
-----------------------
Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance
For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/weather.gov/otx/avndashboard
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        85  57  84  58  78  56 /  20  20  10  30  40  40
Coeur d`Alene  86  58  84  59  78  56 /  10  20  20  40  50  50
Pullman        80  52  79  53  73  51 /  20  30  20  70  50  50
Lewiston       85  62  85  62  78  60 /  20  30  20  70  60  50
Colville       85  46  85  47  80  46 /  30  20  20  20  50  30
Sandpoint      83  52  83  54  76  51 /  20  20  20  40  60  60
Kellogg        84  57  82  59  75  56 /  30  30  20  70  70  70
Moses Lake     83  56  84  57  80  55 /  50  20  20  20  40  20
Wenatchee      80  61  84  63  83  61 /  60  20  30  20  40  20
Omak           85  58  88  61  85  59 /  40  20  10  10  30  20
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Thursday for Central Chelan
     County-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan
     Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville
     Plateau-Wenatchee Area-Western Chelan County.
ID...Air Quality Alert until 10 AM PDT this morning for Northern
     Panhandle.
&&
$$

NWS OTX Office Area Forecast Discussion