Mancelona, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

210
FXUS63 KAPX 102326
AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
726 PM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A patchy area or two of fog tonight?
- Seasonably warm temperatures continue through the extended.
- Showers, iso thunder chances, later Friday into Saturday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:
Weak, moisture starved short wave shifts east through the overnight
hours (this feature has popped a rogue cluster of
showers near Roscommon alla current radar imagery ~3-4PM ET).
Cannot rule out a couple of showers lingering across south
central portions of northern lower and mainly Tip of the Mitt
northward as this feature shifts east, but negligible impact.
Perhaps some patchy fog tonight where sufficient cooling and low
level saturation overlap, but do not have a strong feeling for
it either way. Meanwhile, high pressure builds east southeast
across portions of Ontario and Quebec, shifting northern MI sfc
flow to the east on Thursday. Consequently, subtle cooling is
expected (~3 to 5 degrees) in the vicinity of the Lake Huron
shoreline. Ridging aloft across the center of the country will
build northeastward with increasing heights on Thursday. All
this to say, very little weather impacts over the next 24 hours,
with temperatures largely in the 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Day 2-3 (Friday - Saturday):
Positive upper height anomalies continue to build northward Friday
into the weekend. A transient omega block upper pattern sets up from
the Pac NW to Quebec, with ridging across the Upper Midwest and into
Ontario. The troughing on the eastern periphery of the ridge will
dive southeastward across the interior northeast with the base
of the trough axis and subsequent low level boundary moving in
the vicinity of northern MI late Friday, but more likely during
the daytime hours on Saturday. Thus, a tongue of moisture and
lift will produce scattered showers at times (perhaps a rumble
of thunder). Still seemingly plenty of uncertainty in regards to
spatial coverage of precipitation, intensity, and the degree of
elevated instability present. Leaning towards scattered showers
with a few rumbles of thunder possible as a most likely
scenario at this time. We`ll just have to keep an eye on this
feature going forward as some pieces of guidance are more
bullish on more moderate amounts of precipitation.
Days 4-7 (Sunday - Wednesday):
Ridging/higher heights build back over N MI Sunday with sfc high
pressure likely resulting in a drier period. There will be
moisture and instability not too far off to the west early to
mid next week, so we`ll have to watch for any advections/disturbances
moving eastward in the coming forecast cycles. But overall,
much of this period looks to continue on warmer and mainly
drier side.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 726 PM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Have IFR fog late tonight CIU/PLN, MVFR fog at MBL. Light winds
persist, and with only partial cloud cover tonight, and somewhat
more humid air in place, expect patchy fog overnight. Otherwise
VFR.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLD
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...JZ

NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion