Manila, Utah Weather Forecast Discussion

656
FXUS65 KGJT 302327
AFDGJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
527 PM MDT Tue Sep 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated mountain showers will continue this afternoon with
  scattered showers over northeast Utah this evening as a weak
  shortwave trough moves through.
- Warmer and drier conditions return Wednesday through Friday,
  with temperatures climbing to 5-10 degrees above normal.
- A low pressure system moves through Friday night into
  Saturday, bringing cooler and wetter conditions with more
  widespread wetting rain with some light mountain snow, before
  conditions dry out again early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 247 PM MDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Breezy afternoon winds have mixed down to the surface with gusts
in the 20 to 35 mph range as a 60 kt jet streak associated with
a weak shortwave trough tracks across the area. Showers have
been isolated and very weak with limited forcing, more likely
producing gusty winds than wetting rain due to drier low levels.
Thunderstorm activity is more prevalent across northeast Utah
over the western Uintas and western Tavaputs, just to the west
of our CWA border. Expect this activity to become a bit more
prevalent across northeast Utah later this afternoon into the
early evening as this shortwave trough tracks over northeast
Utah into northwest Colorado before exiting tonight. Hi res CAMs
show convection lessening after sunset and ending by midnight.
Better chances of wetting rain look to occur this evening with
this activity over northeast Utah.
On Wednesday, drier conditions move in as a ridge of high
pressure builds across the area and lifts this jet northward.
Mostly sunny skies are expected on Wednesday with temperatures
warming up a bit to around 5 degrees above normal. Also, with
the jet north of the region, expect less wind than today due to
a decreased pressure gradient.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 247 PM MDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Brisk southwesterly flow returns to the region on Thursday.
This comes ahead of a digging trough working its way ashore out
west. Winds are expected to pick up Thursday and Friday, with
high temperatures 10 degrees in excess of October climatology.
Thursday remains a dry forecast, but some weak POP returns to
the terrain of the Uintas and San Juans on Friday afternoon.
This will be more isolated in nature before the best push of
PWAT arrives Friday evening and early Saturday. Widespread
showers and thunderstorms continue Friday night into Saturday as
the front arrives early Saturday morning. This will keep
afternoon highs suppressed and bring snow levels down to around
10000 feet. Mountain travelers, hunters, climbers, and leaf
peepers are advised to stay abreast of local forecasts on
Friday/Saturday as the front rolls through the region.
Significant snow accumulations are not expected, but cold and
wet conditions are likely to take the fun out of outdoor
activity. Afternoon highs on Saturday and Sunday will trend
around 15 degrees colder than Friday. Showers will linger north
of I-70 Sunday, along with the San Juans and Uncompahgre
Plateau. Southwesterly flow returns quickly in the progressive
pattern that models are keen to. This will warm things back up
on Monday and Tuesday to near normal conditions. Models keep the
wave train rolling early next week, bringing some additional
precipitation to the mountains Monday and Tuesday, as another
digging low over the Great Basin sends additional Pacific
moisture across the Four Corners.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 527 PM MDT Tue Sep 30 2025
A system passing through northern Utah into northern Colorado
will bring a threat of showers and thunderstorms through the
evening. Wind gusts to 50 mph will be a threat with the
strongest storms through the next few hours...however most gusts
will be 40 mph or less. VFR will prevail with the storm
simmering down after sunset and mainly clear and dry conditions
expected for Wednesday.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MDA
LONG TERM...LTB
AVIATION...TGJT

NWS GJT Office Area Forecast Discussion