Mansura, Louisiana Weather Forecast Discussion

710
FXUS64 KLCH 150524
AFDLCH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1224 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- An upper level ridge will remain over the region through the
  first half of this week.
- Hot and mostly dry conditions are expected during the period.
- Lower than normal daytime humidity will keep heat indices capped
  in the upper 90s to around 100 each day.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
A ridge aloft remains centered over Mexico this morning while
extending into the NW gulf, TX, and LA. An upper low is over the
SE states while another upper disturbance is over the Pacific NW.
At the surface an area of high pressure is centered along the
Louisiana coast.
Today, much like Sunday, will be warm and generally dry. However
and isolated afternoon shower or storm can not be ruled out. Pops
of 10 to 20% have been added to the forecast today, and chances
look the highest along the sea breeze. The mid lvl inversion in
association with the ridge should keep most convection that does
develop limited, however a lightning strike or two will be
possible.
Tuesday into Wednesday the upper disturbance over the SE states
may slightly retrograde to slightly weaken the ridge aloft
locally. Rain chances are again expected to range from the 10 to
20 percent Tuesday, but increase slightly into Wednesday.
The ridge at the surface is forecast to remain in place keeping
winds light.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
The upper disturbance over the the Pac NW will move into the
central sections of the country for the second half of the week.
This may erode the ridge slightly and allow the continuance of
isolated afternoon showers and storms.
No fronts are forecast to enter the region. Temperatures will
remain sightly above normal.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
Thin br may occur around sunrise, however mostly VFR conditions
are anticipated through the period. Winds will be light.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
Winds will be generally light and east to southeast during the
period. A modest increase in winds can be expected today and
Tuesday as a wave passes well south of the region.
Dry air and high pressure will keep precipitation chances to a
minimum.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
Hot and mostly dry conditions with light, variable winds to be
expected through the first half of the week. Broadening high
pressure will remain over or near the region into mid week,
however a 10 to 20 percent chance of an afternoon thunderstorm is
forecast.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  92  69  93  69 /  10  10  10  10
LCH  91  72  92  72 /  20  10  10  10
LFT  91  72  91  71 /  10  10  10  10
BPT  91  72  92  72 /  20  10  10  10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05

NWS LCH Office Area Forecast Discussion