Maplewood, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

193
FXUS63 KMPX 220036
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
736 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated showers and storms this afternoon/evening, a small chance
for strong/severe storms mainly in southern MN.
- Lingering shower chances Monday, and possibly Tuesday across
  the south and east.
- Rest of the week, drying out with above normal temperatures of
  highs the mid 70s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Today... Interesting weather setup with small and compacts upper
level low spinning across northwest Minnesota. Upper level ascent
ahead of this PV anomaly, was leading to clouds and some rain
showers. For the rest of today, expect isolated rain showers mainly
along and north of I-94 from this feature.
Farther south, there was an area of clouds and showers across
southeast Minnesota, and these were tied to an area of low level
Theta_E advection, This will be the focus for showers and some
thunderstorms this afternoon through the late evening. Forecast
soundings for later today show low LCLs, a veered hodograph, and
around 1500 J/kg of uncapped CAPE. The current thinking is the
uncapped nature of the environment should lead to several
thunderstorms, and the lack of strong deep layer shear means the
updrafts will be short-lived and relatively weak.
However, there is a scenario where a couple storms are able to tap
into the marginal shear, and remain somewhat isolated. If this were
the case, could see a potential for a brief tornado, and perhaps
some large hail. SPC has introduced a 2 percent tornado chance for
this reason.
Later this evening, storms will become more elevated as we lose the
surface heating. This will bring an end to the tornado threat, but
some hail is possible for a few hours past sunset. In summary, the
severe weather threat is low, which is why there is only a Marginal
Risk, but a few of the stronger storms could pose a tornado and/or
hail threat.
Monday and Tuesday... The upper level trough bringing the chances
for rain will become more positively tilted and shear out, but this
will be a slow process. A few areas of positive vorticity will
rotate across the Upper Midwest, and could bring lingering small
chances for a light rain showers mainly to the south along I-90, and
along/east of I-35.
By Wednesday, confidence in dry weather increases. Upper level
subsidence is reflected in increasing surface pressure, so expect
more sun than clouds, with light winds expected through the weekend.
Temperatures will be in the 70s, with dewpoints in the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 721 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
HRRR has had a good general idea with WAA convection over
southern MN, so leaned heavily on it to time shra/tsra chances
into MKT/MSP/RNH/EAU through much of the night. Forecast
soundings again show plenty of low level moisture for some more
fog/stratus fun tonight, though confidence of the fog/stratus
scenario is low as it will be dependent on how far north
convective activity and its associated cloud cover makes it
through the night. AXN looks to have the best chance at seeing
clearish skies and therefore has the best chances of fog. As
the rain clears a location, the threat for low stratus will
increase. Current TAFs may be a bit pessimistic, but again, the
extent of stratus going into Monday morning is a lower
confidence portion of the forecast. For Monday afternoon, the
TSRA threat looks to be down along the I-90 corridor.
KMSP...Followed the idea of the HRRR that we`ll have scattered
showers and occastional TS to deal with for basically the first
8 hours of this TAF period. About 75% of short term models drop
cigs down to IFR/MVFR levels between 10z and 16z, so did get
more aggressive with stratus mention Monday morning.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind NE 5-15 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind NNW 5-10 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...MPG

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion