Marble Falls, Arkansas Weather Forecast Discussion

572
FXUS64 KLZK 240427
AFDLZK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1127 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
-Some flash flood threat continues into the overnight hours
-A strong/briefly severe thunderstorm remains possible overnight into
midday Wed...mainly across SRN/SERN sections
-Drier and calmer conditions expected late this week into early next
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Scattered convection is continuing late this Tue evening as
SHRA/TSRA activity fires along/just behind an outflow dropping south
across central to SRN sections of the state. The primary cold front
is situated over far NWRN AR into ERN OK...which is slowly
progressing SE. Some SVR threat remains late this evening and
potentially into the overnight hrs...primarily where best overlap of
ML CAPE and bulk SHR exists over SWRN sections ahead of the initial
convection. Over time however...this instability has been weakening.
Even so...SRN/SERN sections will still see some potential for a
strong/SVR storm overnight.
The threat for heavy rainfall remains however as the convection
behind the initial convective line moves back over some areas that
have already seen very heavy rainfall recently. This activity was
becoming more widespread along/ahead of the slowly SEWD progressing
cold front across WRN sections. Eventually...the front will allow
colder/more stable air to start pushing this convection further
E/SE...but will have to pay close attention to the flash flood
threat across WRN sections...especially where very heavy rainfall
has already been seen recently.
By the daylight hrs Wed morning...the cold front will start to gain
SEWD momentum an the upper level disturbance drops SE into the
state...eventually pushing the organized convection further SE
during the daytime hrs Wed. Some strong to briefly SVR convection
may be seen ahead of the front across SERN sections early...at least
until the main surge of the front drops SE by around midday. There
may still be a heavy rain threat...especially right before the front
pushes through. However...the SRN portion of the state has remained
fairly dry relative to other areas of the state recently...so it may
take a bit more rainfall to cause some significant issues flooding
wise. May cancel the Flood Watch by sunrise Wed as well due to the
threat for widespread heavy rainfall decreasing in the watch area.
Precip chances will continue behind the front...under the main upper
shortwave that will slowly drop SE Wed into Thu...before finally
shifting east by late this week. This upper shortwave looks to break
off from the main upper flow...developing into a closed upper low to
the east of AR. With AR being on the west side of this upper
low...NRLY flow aloft will be seen over AR late this week through
the weekend. This will keep the forecast mainly dry...though temps
look to warm back above normal into the early part of next week as
an upper ridge starts moving back over the region near the end of
the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Some scattered convection will continue overnight across central
to SRN sections...with more spotty convection possible across NRN
sections. Expect MVFR or briefly lower conditions within this
convective activity. A cold front will drop SE through the state
into Wed afternoon...with improving condtions possible behind
this front. However...some additional isolated/scattered
convection will remain possible later in the TAF period behind the
front...but less coverage expected during that timeframe.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     81  68  80  61 /  60  80  50  30
Camden AR         93  70  81  63 /  30  60  90  10
Harrison AR       70  64  74  58 /  90  80  60  20
Hot Springs AR    90  69  81  62 /  30  70  60  10
Little Rock   AR  90  71  81  65 /  30  70  50  10
Monticello AR     94  72  82  66 /  30  40  90  20
Mount Ida AR      91  68  81  61 /  30  80  40  10
Mountain Home AR  71  65  77  59 /  90  80  60  30
Newport AR        86  69  81  64 /  70  80  50  30
Pine Bluff AR     95  71  82  64 /  30  50  80  20
Russellville AR   89  69  82  62 /  50  80  30  10
Searcy AR         87  69  81  63 /  60  70  50  20
Stuttgart AR      93  71  81  65 /  40  60  60  20
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for ARZ004>007-014>016-
024-031>033-039-042>045-103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-
203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-340-341.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...62
AVIATION...62

NWS LZK Office Area Forecast Discussion