Marion, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

944
FXUS62 KILM 071050
AFDILM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
650 AM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with the cold
front can be expected mainly East of I-95 to the coast from
midday thru this evening. Cooler temperatures and breezy
northeast winds will return during the upcoming work week along
with the potential for unsettled weather especially near the
coast as weak waves of low pressure track NE along the stalled
offshore front.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Large amplified upper trof will help push a sfc cold front,
thats nearly overhead attm, off the ILM CWA coasts later this
morning and just offshore tonight before finally stalling as it
becomes oriented parallel with the flow aloft given the upper
trof axis remaining positioned west of the FA. Embedded s/w
trof action combined with post frontal lifted moisture, just
enough incoming insolation and a weak sea breeze will result in
high chance POPs for showers and thunderstorms with the majority
of it beginning midday today and lasting thru dusk. Could
observe back-building convection with this activity this period
resulting in possible isolated minor flood issues, ie. ponding
of water as well as low lying and poor drainage areas,
especially within urban areas. But given our recent dry spell
resulting in increased Flash Flood values to attain. Would need
a good dose of rainfall for any of this to occur even given the
increased PWs to over 2 inches today. Will see highs in the mid
80s with low 80s along the northern periphery of the CWA given
some weak CAA later today.
Tonight, look for a transition of the pcpn to more stratiform
in nature while becoming on the light side. And eventually
ending inland but continuing along the immediate coast and
offshore late tonight as the front transitions into a stalled
boundary just offshore. Likely will observe low stratus and/or
fog later tonight as high pressure wedges into the Carolinas.
Tonight will see CAA occur with tonights lows in the 60-65
range, with 60 along the northern periphery, with 65 along the
immediate coast and the southern portions of the CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Strong and or persistent NE flow wedge scenario will be in
place through the short term forecast period...Monday through
Tuesday. Guidance has backed off pops/qpf somewhat for this time
and it seems very reasonable as outside of tropical activity
its always a challenge to get deep moisture pushing onshore and
or certainly inland. Little to no changes to the temperature
forecast with highs in the upper 70s perhaps 80 in a place or
two with lows in the middle 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The persistent NE flow will become more diffuse during Wednesday
and Thursday and build back in later in the period. Guidance
continues to show coastal/offshore pops meandering about
basically for all periods but similar to the short term
period...these numbers will probably drop in time. Regarding
temperatures the trends seem similar to the past several days as
although there is a normally cool/stable NE flow in place the
airmass will slowly modify. Highs will warm into the lower to
middle 80s while lows will remain mostly in the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR to start out across all terminals. The cold front is
basically overhead, across the eastern Carolinas, and forecast
to move off the coast before stalling just offshore later today.
Will see a decent round of MVFR, possibly IFR, convection
commencing midday and possibly lasting well into this evening
especially at the coastal terminals. Sfc high pressure to begin
ridging across the Carolinas later tonight with possibly
MVFR/IFR stratus by 05z, mainly across the inland terminals. And
eventually all other terminals will succumb to the MVFR to
possibly IFR low ceiling stratus. Calm winds becoming light NW-
NE wind this morning, with coastal terminals possibly briefly
going E-SE this aftn. Otherwise, once the high starts ridging
in from the NE, and the sfc pg tightens, look for NE winds to
increase tonight, to around 10 kt, except 10-15 kt at the
coastal terminals, during the pre-dawn Mon hrs.
Extended Outlook...Wedge of high pressure to settle in late
through midweek, bringing periodic restrictions from low
stratus and the threat for reduced vsby in fog and/or pcpn,
mainly closer to the coast as a series of weak sfc lows move NE
along the stalled offshore front. Active NE winds could
periodically gust to 20+ kt, mainly at the coastal terminals.
&&
.MARINE...
Through Sunday...Cold front nearly overhead this morning will
snake across the local waters and into the offshore waters
before stalling. Mainly light 5 to 10 kt NW becoming NE-E today.
The sfc pg to tighten tonight as high pressure wedges across
the Carolinas tonight while the front remains stalled across
the nearby offshore waters. This will result in NE winds
increasing to 15 to 25 kt late tonight with gusts approaching
30 kt by or after daybreak Sun. Seas generally running around 2
ft today, with a Se 2 ft swell at 8 second periods dominating.
Tonight, looking at increasing 3 to 5 second period wind waves
as NE winds increase, mainly during the pre-dawn Mon hrs. Seas
around 2 ft in the evening will build to 2 to 4 ft by daybreak
Mon. Reduced vsby from pcpn expected later this aftn and likely
thru the night, from showers and tstorms today and eventually
from showers or light rain later tonight.
Sunday night through Thursday... NE winds will basically be in
place through the entire work week/short and long term forecast
period. Speeds in a range of 20-25 knots even a little higher
at times will warrant the continuation of the small craft
advisory Monday and Tuesday. The flow relaxes a bit mid week but
increases again late in the period. Significant seas will track
winds for the most part with 5-7 feet a good part of Monday and
Tuesday decreasing to 3-5 then 2-4 feet in time.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Monday to 6 AM EDT Wednesday
     for AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/SHK

NWS ILM Office Area Forecast Discussion