780 FXUS64 KOUN 070353 AFDOUNArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1053 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1237 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
- Cooler this weekend, followed by a gradual warmup back to normal next week.
- Very low chances for showers Sunday through Monday night, mainly northern Oklahoma.
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.NEAR TERM... (Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Surface high pressure, centered over northern Oklahoma, will shift slowly eastward tonight. This will keep surface winds generally from the northeast and east with a light southeast wind returning to parts of western Oklahoma. Meanwhile, low and especially mid- level clouds continue to thin late this morning and this trend will continue, especially across southern Oklahoma and northern Texas. Although limited cloud cover is expected this evening, humidity profiles remain rather high, so scattered to broken clouds may redevelop during the overnight period. There is also a chance of heavy dew and some fog where the sky remains mostly clear. This may occur across central and south central Oklahoma. Temperatures will remain on the chilly side with lows ranging from the lower 50s (north central OK) to near 60 (along the Red River).
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.SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Most of the day Sunday will be dry with a return of a light south to southeast wind and slightly higher dewpoints. With northwest flow aloft, a weak upper level disturbance will approach the central and southern Plains Sunday evening. This combined with a moderate low- level jet may result in widely scattered showers/storms across mainly northwestern Oklahoma. If precipitation develops, most of this will end of move east by mid to late morning Monday. Although a ridge will begin to amplify Monday into Monday night over the Rockies, another weak disturbance may bring scattered showers and storms Monday evening into Monday night. This activity should mainly occur across the northern half of Oklahoma. After Tuesday morning, dry and warmer weather is expected for the rest of the week.
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.LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 1232 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
The long term forecast will be dominated by an upper ridge, keeping rain chances low and allowing temperatures to return to normal.
Models diverge for the upcoming weekend on the path of an approaching trough that could bring additional rain chances to the area.
Day
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.AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1053 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
There is potential for MVFR conditions with across south central Oklahoma overnight, mainly in the KADM to KADH corridor. MVFR conditions are possible at KDUA, but at a 40 percent probability, it is not included as a TEMPO group in the 06Z TAFs. Elsewhere, the clouds over northwest Oklahoma will have VFR ceilings, and skies will be mostly clear elsewhere.
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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 58 79 60 79 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 57 83 61 85 / 0 0 0 10 Wichita Falls TX 61 82 62 85 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 55 80 60 83 / 0 0 10 20 Ponca City OK 53 81 55 81 / 0 0 0 10 Durant OK 63 81 59 83 / 0 0 0 0
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.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. &&
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NEAR TERM...06 SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...26
NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion