947 FXUS63 KLBF 142320 AFDLBFArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 620 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms into this evening, mainly west of Ainsworth through Hayes Center, with a few severe storms possible through early evening.
- Dry conditions Monday before an approaching cold front brings a return of thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening.
- Below average high temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s Wednesday and the 70s Thursday through next Sunday. Showers likely Wednesday, with some threat for showers and thunderstorms continuing late week
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.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 311 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Scattered showers and a few severe storms will be possible mainly east of HWY 83 into early this evening. An upper trough axis currently over western Nebraska will lift into eastern South Dakota and western Iowa by 12Z Sunday. Skies will become mostly clear overnight. Lows cooler from the lows 50s west to mid and upper 50s east.
Monday, upper height rises as the upper trough lifts into North Dakota and Minnesota. Another upper trough will move across Idaho and Montana into western Wyoming. A sunny sky returns with highs in the mid 80s.
Monday night, isolated to widely scattered convection initiating off the higher terrain of Wyoming late Monday afternoon could reach the western Sandhills Monday evening.
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.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 311 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Another upper trough moves into the region Tuesday into Wednesday. A cold front will push into the area Tuesday afternoon and evening. Ahead of this front, a modestly sheared and increasingly unstable environment will be in place across much of the area. The area may remain capped, and limit storm development during the afternoon. Chances increase Tuesday night and the upper trough moves in, though storms should become elevated. Some threat for strong to severe storms near and ahead of the front Tuesday afternoon and evening, with a threat for damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall with the strongest storms. Some hail threat may also develop. Likely POPS for Tuesday night.
The upper trough will remain over the area Wednesday with likely chances for showers and cooler, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. The upper trough is likely to persist across the region Thursday and Friday, before lifting to the northeast across Iowa and Minnesota into the western Great Lakes Saturday and Sunday. This will likely lead to highs in the 70s and at least low chances for showers.
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.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 620 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue over the next couple of hours before diminishing by mid evening. A gradual return to VFR conditions are then anticipated as ceilings rise and winds remain generally under 10 knots. Some stronger afternoon winds may be possible across northern Nebraska, but gusts should remain at or below 20 knots.
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.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None.
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SHORT TERM...Roberg LONG TERM...Roberg AVIATION...Kulik
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion