Mayer, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

861
FXUS63 KMPX 251723
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1223 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy dense fog this morning, mainly in western WI. Sunny
  skies for the rest of the day.
- Warm temperatures and sunny skies persist through the weekend
  and into next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Compared to the last couple nights, the fog is much patchier and
largely confined to the typical river valleys with less of a
presence across the MPX CWA with the sole exception of western
WI. RNH has been wobbling between 1/2sm to 3sm visibility since
midnight, generally favoring visibility above 1sm. As such we do
not anticipate needing another dense fog advisory for this
morning unless things rapidly deteriorate over the next hour or
so. Temperatures will be warmer than yesterday generally in the
upper 70s to low 80s with mostly sunny skies as upper leveling
ridging and surface high pressure dominate our weather pattern
over the next several days.
Not much has changed within the forecast as quiet conditions are
still expected through at least the next week and likely beyond
this into early October. The upper level ridge breaks down as a
trough slides across Canada by Saturday, however surface high
pressure remains the dominant feature with a lack of synoptic
scale lift within the lower levels. An increase in general cloud
cover is possible by the middle of next week with some mid-
level shortwave energy looking possible, however this will
depend on the trajectory of a western trough that may or may not
be close enough to affect the area. The GEFS has a couple of
members trying to produce low amounts of rainfall by Wednesday,
however all other members are dry with only about 50 percent of
membership showing any precipitation within the 2 week period,
with the `most likely` period being next weekend by October
4th/5th. Not only do amounts vary significantly but the other
ensembles also support an overall dry forecast with only smaller
chances for precipitation through the first week of October.
Without a significant synoptic scale system, it seems unlikely
that we see any kind of appreciable rain chances coming up.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
VFR conditions to persist through the 18z TAF period for the
majority of the terminals. One exception will be at EAU, where
LAMP guidance advertises another round of IFR or lower
visibility due to fog after ~10z.
WSW winds sustain around 10kts this afternoon. A dry cold
frontal passage will occur from the northwest to the southeast
through tonight. Winds will flip northwesterly behind the front
and then continue to gradually veer easterly after daybreak
tomorrow. Southeasterly winds are forecast to sustain around
10kts Friday afternoon.
KMSP...No additional concerns at this time.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts becoming NW.
SUN...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...Strus

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion