Mayport, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

095
FXUS62 KJAX 080517
AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
117 AM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...
.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 101 AM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
A frontal boundary will move just to the south this morning, and
become located in a southwest to northeast oriented inverted
trough this afternoon. This boundary will sink a little further
south Tonight, as high pressure builds to the north. Precipitation
chances will be greatest over NE FL, closer to the frontal zone.
The gradient between the high and trough will be elevated Today,
resulting in a surge of winds down the coast Today and Tonight. The
strongest winds will be north of St Augustine. At this time, not
anticipating gusts to reach wind advisory criteria, but could come
close.
Temperatures will be below normal Today, and near normal Tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 101 AM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
The frontal zone will stretch from southwest of the area, across
central FL, then extending to the east of the area through Wednesday
night, while high pressure remains centered to the north.
Precipitation chances will continue to be greatest over NE FL.
Elevated coastal winds will continue Tuesday.
Below normal temperatures will prevail this period.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 101 AM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
The frontal zone will push further south Thursday into Friday, as
high pressure to the north builds more toward the northeast.
Thursday and Friday will largely be dry inland, with greatest
precipitation chances focused toward the NE FL coastal counties.
The high to the northeast will weaken over the weekend, with an
another inverted trough developing over the western Atlantic. Inland
areas will remain largely dry over the weekend, with greatest
precipitation chances near the NE FL coast due to moist onshore
flow. Elevated coastal winds expected Friday and Saturday.
Temperatures will continue below normal this period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 101 AM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Lift provided by coastal convergence and an incoming cold front will
direct showers inland this morning around 12z, some could produce
heavy rain and visibility restrictions to MVFR/IFR levels as the
track southwesterly and farther inland through the rest of the
morning. Additionally, a layer of stratocumulus will push into the
coastal and then spread inland this morning with bases near 1.5-2.0
kft for airfields along I-95. Given the increase in wind, fog
development is not expected.
The front will bring a surge of gusty northeasterly winds today with
sustained winds peaking around 15-20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots
at coastal airfields this afternoon. Stratocumulus may begin to
break as it slowly lifts this afternoon. Light SHRA and drizzle may
persist through much the later part of the forecast period,
especially at NE FL terminals situated along the coast.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 101 AM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
The area will be between high pressure to the north, and an inverted
trough over the western Atlantic early this week. The gradient
between these two features will result in a surge of winds extending
down the coastal waters. The gradient will relax mid week as the
high and trough weaken. The high will strenghten to the north
northeast late in the week, with troughing to the southeast. Once
again the gradient between these features will will result in
elevated winds.
Rip currents: High Risk of Rip Currents through Tuesday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 101 AM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
The surge of winds down the coast Today into Tuesday could result in
coastal flooding at the coast, and along the St Johns river and its
tributaries, especially around times of high tide, as the tidal
water becomes trapped. Therefore, a coastal Flood Advisory
has been posted.
After a break Wednesday and Thursday, another surge of winds will
move down the coastal waters Friday into Saturday, once again
producing potential for coastal flooding.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  83  67  81  66 /  20  10  30  10
SSI  82  72  80  71 /  60  60  60  40
JAX  84  72  81  71 /  70  60  70  40
SGJ  85  74  83  73 /  80  80  90  60
GNV  87  71  84  70 /  80  50  80  40
OCF  86  72  83  72 /  90  50  90  40
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk from 8 AM EDT this morning through late
     Tuesday night for FLZ124-125-138-233-333.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT
     Wednesday for FLZ124-125-225-233-325-333.
GA...High Rip Current Risk from 8 AM EDT this morning through late
     Tuesday night for GAZ154-166.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT
     Wednesday for GAZ154-166.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 5 AM EDT
     Wednesday for AMZ450-470.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM EDT
     Wednesday for AMZ452-472.
&&
$$

NWS jax Office Area Forecast Discussion