Mayview, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

148
FXUS63 KEAX 092021
AFDEAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
321 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Lingering showers and a few storms this afternoon primarily
  east of I-35 and south of I-70. No severe expected.
- Warming trend starting Wednesday into the weekend. Highs will
  reach the upper 80s to low 90s (8-12 degrees above normal).
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
The synoptic pattern is defined by stout mid to upper level ridging
in the western U.S. with troughing prominent across the southeast
U.S. A few lingering showers and storms (just to the south of the KC
Metro as of 19Z) continue to track to the southeast. These storms
have provided eastern KS and western MO a few breezes and rain
reports up to .40 inch (Lees Summit). As showers and storms track
farther east into more stable air, they will continue to weaken.
Temperature-wise, increased clouds due to showers and storms have
impeded the effects of diurnal heating mainly for eastern KS and
western MO. Clearing has begun over the past few hours and will
allow highs to reach the 70s.
For Wednesday, a somewhat disorganized pattern exists with a vort
max dropping southeast through central Iowa leading to an outside
chance of a shower or storm across far northern Missouri; however,
the better instability exists further west across Kansas. Recent
runs of the HRRR suggest isolated -scattered storms developing
across central - eastern Kansas, but weakening as they move east
into more stable air. With the uncertainty both north and east, left
the forecast dry. Going into the afternoon, the stout mid to upper
level ridging continues its eastward track towards our area. Higher
heights coupled with persistent southerly winds will spark a warming
trend. A H850 thermal ridge shifts farther east bringing H850
temperatures near 70 degrees F. Sufficient mixing through the day
will result in high temperatures reaching the mid to upper 80s
tomorrow (a few isolated sightings of 90 degree F are possible).
As mid to upper level ridging continues to approach the area, expect
temperatures to continue to warm. Thursday, highs in the upper 80s
become more widespread with a few areas south of I-70 possibly
reaching the low 90s. Friday and Saturday, the ridge axis will
reside over our area bringing the warmest temperatures of the week.
Thankfully, dew points remain in the 60s keeping conditions more
bearable, staving off any need for heat headlines for the weekend.
Sunday and Monday, spotty chances for precip return for the
northwest portion of our CWA as a shortwave within the circulation
of a dynamic low tracks to the north on the west side of the
ridge.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
A few thunderstorms remain along the MO/KS border near IXD (as of
17Z). They are anticipated to track to the southeast not impacting
terminals farther north (KMKC, KMCI, and KSTJ). Conditions will
improve to VFR for KIXD after storms move through. Winds will
remain southerly ranging from 7-10 kts for the rest of the
forecast period.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Collier

NWS EAX Office Area Forecast Discussion