Medora, North Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

008
FXUS63 KBIS 190327
AFDBIS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1027 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mainly showers remain in the forecast through Friday. After
  widespread showers tonight, the highest chances for rain will
  shift east of Highway 83 on Friday.
- Severe weather is not expected, though periods of heavy rain
  may bring some localized minor flooding at times.
- High temperatures will be mainly in the 50s and 60s Friday,
  then warming into the 70s and low 80s by Sunday. Low
  temperatures will be in the 40s to mid 50s.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1027 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Widespread showers wil limited thunderstorms remain form much of
the area. These showers could linger through the night in these
same areas before moving eastward on Friday. Made some minor PoP
adjustments based on radar trends. Areas in the central and
east could also see some fog form tonight if shower activity
diminishes enough. Added in patchy fog in these areas to
account for this potential.
UPDATE
Issued at 644 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Showers with limited thunderstorm activity continues to linger
this evening. Some shower activity may be slightly further west
than previously anticipated. Overall made some minor PoP updates
to account for the latest radar trends.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Currently a double barrel upper low is positioned over the
Northern Plains. The western low is over northern Montana,
while the second and stacked low is over northeast South
Dakota. This entails the surface low is also in northeast South
Dakota. The two upper lows are slowly rotating counter-
clockwise around each other, so the surface low in SD is slowly
moving north.
At the surface, multiple rains bands are spiraling counter-
clockwise through in the southern and eastern half of North
Dakota. As the surface low slowly progresses north and slightly
east, the rain bands will slowly expand north and east. This
trend will continue overnight. Aloft the double lows will
combine over the Dakotas and begin the eastward progression out
of here tonight. Friday the rain will end west to east
naturally as the low moves east. High temperatures while being in
the backside of this system will remain below average in the
60s in the central and east. The western part of the state will
be in the upper 60s as a shortwave ridge moves in. This weekend
will be dry and at or above average for temperatures with highs
in the 70s and 80s once again.
The weak ridging pattern will break down Monday when an upper
low dives south from Canada into Idaho. North Dakota will
briefly be in weak southwest flow Monday. Showers and maybe a
thunderstorm will then be possible across the southwest and
south central Monday from this. That low then could move east
through the Central Plains and produce more rain in the southern
half of the state later next week. Long term models and the CPC
are showing continued above average temperatures through the
end of October.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 644 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Lingering low clouds along with continued shower activity will
bring widespread MVFR to IFR conditions through tonight. Most
sites have showers prevailing in TAFs through tonight, with
limited activity at KXWA. Chances for thunderstorms are limited
tonight. Some heavier rain showers could bring LIFR conditions,
although confidence was not high enough to include. Thursday,
showers may linger across central and eastern areas. Most areas
could also see at least MVFR ceilings linger, with some VFR in
the KXWA area, and perhaps IFR ceilings to areas with rain. An
east becoming northerly wind can also be expected during the TAF
period.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Anglin
DISCUSSION...Smith
AVIATION...Anglin

NWS BIS Office Area Forecast Discussion