Meiners Oaks, California Weather Forecast Discussion

361
FXUS66 KLOX 242115
AFDLOX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
215 PM PDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...24/117 PM.
Cooler temperatures are expected most areas tomorrow as onshore
flow increases. Skies will be mostly sunny Thursday and Friday,
except for some morning low clouds and fog near the coast. Below
normal temperatures are expected to continue into next week. There
is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over the mountains
this weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...24/137 PM.
The upper low from Mexico that brought all the thunderstorms last
night has temporarily moved north near the Bay Area which will
keep the local area dry at least for another day or two.
Temperatures have cooled off today away from the immediate coast
by 4-8 degrees and expecting another few degrees of cooling south
of Pt Conception tomorrow while the Central Coast warms up
slightly as clouds and moisture have kept that area artificially
cooler today and more sunshine is expected tomorrow.
The low is expected to wobble back down to southern California
Friday and through the weekend. Could see a stray shower across
interior SLO County Friday but otherwise expecting dry
conditions. PW`s do start increasing again during this period as
the upper low returns and there may be enough instability to
trigger some a shower or thunderstorm over the mountains this
weekend. But minimal impacts are expected. Below normal
temperatures are expected to continue through the weekend as the
marine layer returns to coast and some valleys.
.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...24/201 PM.
Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will again be possible across
the mountains on Sunday, though the upper low will finally be
moving east for good and it`s possible that storms will stay east
of LA County. Otherwise, another day of below normal temperatures
with low clouds and fog covering the coast and valleys in the
morning hours.
Models show a fairly strong upper level trough developing along
the West coast early next week. Rain will be likely across the
northern portion of the state by Monday night and there will at
least be a 30-40% chance of light rain through SLO and northern
Santa Barbara Counties Tuesday. Any rain amounts are expected to
be under a quarter inch. The system is not expected to reach
areas south of Pt Conception but it will keep temperatures 4-8
degrees below normal inland and 1-3 degrees below normal along the
coast.
&&
.AVIATION...24/2108Z.
At 1735Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 800 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was 2400 feet with a temperature of 23 C.
Good confidence in TAFs for KBUR, KVNY, KPMD and KWJF.
Moderate confidence in remainder of TAFs. Timing of flight cat
changes may be off by +/- 2 hours, and Conds may be 1 flight
category higher than forecast at any time.
KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Low clouds may not arrive
until 08Z tonight. When clouds do arrive, There is a 30% chance
that cigs may not lower to LIFR, and remain MVFR or higher. Any
east winds should be less than 7 knots.
KBUR...High confidence in forecast.
&&
.MARINE...24/115 PM.
For the waters southwest through northwest along the Central
Coast, there is a 30 percent chance of Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
level winds this afternoon and evening, increasing to 60 percent
during the afternoon and evening on Thursday. Thursday through
Friday, seas will be at or near SCA levels across the outer
waters, with swell heights up to 10 ft. The best chance of SCA
conditions will be 30 to 60 NM offshore.
Inside the southern California bight, there is a 30-40 percent
chance of SCA levels winds during the afternoons and evenings
both today and Thursday. The best chance of SCA conditions will be
for the western Santa Barbara Channel.
&&
.BEACHES...24/854 AM.
A moderately-long period southerly swell is progged to develop
across the coastal waters over the weekend as Hurricane Narda
will enter a window favorable for southerly swells. Hazardous rip
currents and elevated surf are very likely to develop at Los
Angeles and Ventura County beaches over the weekend and into early
next week, but there is a moderate chance that a high surf
advisory will be needed over the weekend into Monday night or
Tuesday. If planning to head to the beach this weekend, please
check in with a lifeguard before entering the water.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Lund
MARINE...Hall/Lund/ASR
BEACHES...Hall
SYNOPSIS...MW
weather.gov/losangeles
Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS LOX Office Area Forecast Discussion