Mercury, Nevada Weather Forecast Discussion

487
FXUS65 KVEF 282139
AFDVEF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
245 PM PDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue today
  for southern Nevada, southeastern California, and northwestern
  Arizona.
* A low pressure system will bring breezy winds and drier air to
  the region as it approaches the region on Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...through next Saturday.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms have been developing this
morning over southern and central Mohave County along with portions
of far southern Nevada as an area of low pressure over the region
begins to lift northeast. The most favorable area of lift and
dynamics will continue to be that northeast quad of the low as it
continues to lift northeast. With plenty of deep moisture still
available the threat of flash flooding will be highest across
portions of Mohave County through this afternoon. For areas of Clark
County, we can still expect to see showers and a few thunderstorms
this afternoon, but most of those are expected to be more terrain
based and with increasing heights and subsidence behind the low, the
storms today are not expected to be as strong and long lasting as
previous days. Still, we can`t completely rule out isolated areas of
flash flooding, especially areas south of Las Vegas. A few storms
are also expected this afternoon over the Sierra where moisture and
moderate instability remain. These are also expected to generally
form over the higher terrain, but it is possible some could drift
into the Owens Valley late this afternoon. Except for a few storms
to linger into the evening, most of the area should see storms
dissipate after sunset with loss of heating.
An uppper-level trough approaching the West Coast will help the low
responsible for this weekend`s unsettled weather clear out of the
region on Monday. This trough will also bring breezy winds to the
area as well as drier southwesterly flow aloft, which will help
to slowly scour moisture from the area early next week.
Southwesterly flow aloft will continue through the week as
troughiness persists across the Western US. Meanwhile, Tropical
Storm Narda will continue to slowly meander north, weakening as
she moves into cooler waters. Eventually, we will see moisture
from the remnants of Narda get advected into southern California
with some portions of our forecast area seeing a relative increase
in moisture during the latter half of the week. This relative
increase in moisture looks to be short-lived as another system
looks to flush the moisture out as it rolls through the area.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast
Package...A few isolated showers and thunderstorms around the valley
will remain into early evening, but are expected to quickly
dissipate after sunset. The stronger and more scattered
thunderstorms will occur along the Peach Springs corridor into
northwest Arizona. Winds will favor a northeast to southeast
direction into this evening, but speeds will remain less than 8
knots. Overnight, look for SCT clouds around 8-10k feet along with
southwest winds around 7 knots. Winds Monday are expected to remain
under 10 knots and favor an east to southeast direction. FEW-SCT
clouds around 10kft.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Scattered thunderstorms
will persist into this evening across northwest Arizona and southern
Nevada along with portions of the southern Sierra. Heavy rain will
be the primary threat, but occasional gusty winds to 30 knots is
possible. Outside of any thunderstorm influences, winds will
generally remain less than 10 knots over Clark and Mohave counties
with south to southwest winds around 10-18 knots over the remainder
of the area. Shower and thunderstorm coverage will be less Monday
with most areas seeing south to southwest winds 10-20 knots and FEW
clouds around 10kft.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Gorelow/Stessman
AVIATION...Gorelow
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NWS VEF Office Area Forecast Discussion