Mesa, Idaho Weather Forecast Discussion

882
FXUS65 KBOI 230343
AFDBOI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
943 PM MDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.DISCUSSION...Clear and dry conditions tonight with a notable
drop in dew points in the last 24h. This will allow for another
cool night near the surface as the air mass aloft begins to
warm. We also saw an increase in smoke today with the northwest
winds transporting it in from WA. The overnight inversion will
keep the smoke in place through Tuesday morning. Smoke is
expected to clear during the afternoon with the development of
a E-SE wind through the surface mixed layer. Current forecast
is on track so no update.
.AVIATION...VFR. Smoke from surface to ~10kft MSL will continue
to reduce visibility (6-10SM) over E/SE Oregon, the lower
Treasure Valley and west-central Idaho mountains through 18Z
Tuesday. Surface winds: less than 10 kt overnight, becoming
E/SE 5-15 kt with local gusts to 20 kt across open terrain on
Tuesday. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: N to NE 5-15 kt.
KBOI...VFR. Light surface winds tonight will increase out of
the SE on Tuesday.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday night...A ridge
continues to build into the region later today with a warming
trend into Wednesday. Winds at the surface are breezy northwest
today, especially through the Magic and Treasure Valleys before
shifting to the east-southeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. Breezy
southeast winds expected during the afternoons on Tuesday and
Wednesday through the I-84 corridor in Baker County, and the
Treasure Valley to the Magic Valley. Elsewhere, breezy
southeast winds mainly on the ridgetops during the day with
light winds at night. Temperatures are near normal today warming
to 10 degrees above normal by Wednesday.
LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...The upper-level ridge
over the area will flatten and shift east Thursday, giving way
to broad W-NW flow aloft. Temperatures on Thursday will begin
10 degrees above normal for the early Fall period. A subtle
shortwave will pass along our northern CWA border Thursday into
Friday, providing an increased pressure gradient for higher wind
gusts Friday afternoon. As the ridge breaks down, with more
zonal flow aloft, temperatures for the rest of the period will
be 5-10 degrees above normal still. Dry conditions will prevail
thanks to limited moisture values.
The upper-level cutoff low in California will stall through the
weekend, and finally begin a track east into the Desert
Southwest on Monday. Monday has hints of an upper-level trough
from the Gulf of Alaska slinging shortwave troughs through the
area along with west-southwesterly flow aloft, bringing
precipitation possibility back into the picture.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.
&&
$$
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DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....CH

NWS BOI Office Area Forecast Discussion