Middle Torch Key, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

630
FXUS62 KKEY 231948
AFDKEY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
348 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
...New AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION...
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 342 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals, but
intermittent reports of MVFR CIGs may occur due to residual low
level clouds from earlier convection. Surface winds will remain
out of the northeast to east near 10 knots.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1038 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
The day shift started out on the quieter side, but things are
starting to pick up! Our KBYX radar is busy at work detecting
isolated clusters of showers and thunderstorms across the CWA. The
spiciest activity is currently in the deep Gulf waters near the
Dry Tortugas. Closer to home, there are a few showers in the
vicinity of the Middle and Upper Keys. An old boundary is tracking
down the island chain, and this will help to get a few more
showers going. The 12Z KKEY sounding shows an overall favorable
environment for activity featuring ample moisture through most of
the vertical environment and MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg. There was a
fairly shallow, weak inversion noted near 900mb, but current radar
trends suggest that this inversion may already have burned off.
Outside of this activity, scattered clouds haven`t kept the
sunshine away yet, but the increase in activity will eventually
lead to our skies becoming partly to mostly cloudy. The available
sunshine can be seen in the current temperatures which are mostly
in the mid to upper 80s with accompanying dew points near 80.
Some quick math tells us that heat indices are already near 100F,
so be prepared for an uncomfortably toasty day in the Keys.
The current forecast package advertises a chance of showers and
thunderstorms, and PoPs at 50 percent. This looks appropriate
considering available observations, so no changes or updates are
needed at this time.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1038 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the
Florida Keys coastal waters. However, a Coast Flood Statement in
effect for the Upper Keys means that mariners should be prepared
for less clearance underneath fixed bridges. From synopsis, rain
and thunder chances will remain elevated through the rest of today
as a moisture surge and low-level trough continue to push through
the Florida Keys marine zones. High pressure pushing off the
Eastern Seaboard will support light to gentle breezes through the
rest of the work week, along with a return to near normal rain
chances for tonight through Saturday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  82  90  82  90 /  30  40  20  20
Marathon  82  91  81  91 /  30  40  30  30
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Public/Marine/Fire...DP
Aviation/Nowcasts....DP
Data Acquisition.....DP
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NWS KEY Office Area Forecast Discussion