Middletown, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

231
FXUS62 KMHX 101139
AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
739 AM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move north along a stalled frontal boundary
just offshore of ENC today. High pressure will then build back
in from the north and west through late in the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...A stalled frontal boundary will persist
off the coast today with an area of low pressure currently
southeast of Cape Hatteras slowly lift NNE along the boundary
today. Abundant low level moisture is advecting into the region
bring widespread stratus across ENC and expect mainly cloudy
skies to continue through the day. Southern area will have the
best chance of seeing some breaks of sun this afternoon. Weak
shortwave energy passing over the area and sfc convergence
along a trough across the area could be sufficient to bring
occasional light rain or drizzle across the area with best
chances across coastal and northern sections of the FA where
low level moisture will be deepest. QPF amounts are expected to
be light with saturated conditions remaining below the dendritic
growth zone. Temps will continue to be below normal with highs
in the mid to upper 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Wednesday...Low pressure will lift away from the
area tonight but the frontal boundary will remain offshore with
high pressure centered to the north ridging into the area.
Little change in sensible weather tonight with northerly winds
and abundant moisture remaining trapped below a strong low
level inversion bringing mostly cloudy skies and chances for
light rain or drizzle continuing. Lows will be in the mid 60s
inland to around 70 along the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 4 AM Wednesday...
Key Messages
- Coastal trough lingers with much of the rainfall remaining
   offshore
- High pressure leads to drier conditions inland
A second high builds in from the Great Lakes region for Thursday.
There are some indications of a weak low forming along the
stalled front/coastal trough off the FL/GA/SC coast this coming
weekend into early next week as a deep positively tilted trough
moves through. It is too soon to tell what impacts, if any, are
expected with very low confidence on the timing, track, and
intensity of the low should it form. At the minimum, winds
should pick up a notch thanks to the tightened pressure
gradient. This results in a higher degree of uncertainty for
the forecast this weekend onwards.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 730 AM Wednesday...
Key Messages
- Widespread sub VFR conditions through the short term.
A frontal boundary remains stalled just off the NC coast with an
area of low pressure centered southeast of Cape Hatteras. The
low will slowly move north-northeast off the coast today and
lifting well away from the area tonight. Abundant low level
moisture is advecting into ENC below a strong low level
inversion bringing widespread stratus across rtes. Pred IFR cigs
expected through this morning then is expected to lift to MVFR
this afternoon. Cigs will lower again overnight with widespread
IFR/LIFR expected. Moisture may be deep enough with weak
forcing aloft as a shortwave moves over the area to bring light
showers at times, especially across northern rtes. Northerly
winds will continue through the period with gusts around 15-20
kt this afternoon.
LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 4 AM Wednesday...Lingering low ceilings are possible into
Thursday. Thereafter, generally VFR flight conditions expected
through the long term, with gusty N/NE winds along the coast.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...
Key Messages...
- Small Craft conditions continue north of Ocracoke Inlet
  through tonight for elevated seas.
Low pressure will slowly lift NNE along a stalled frontal
boundary across the offshore waters today into tonight. Nly
winds have diminished to around 10-20 kt last evening and will
persist through the short term. Seas have also subsided to
around 4-6 ft last evening, however, wave guidance continues to
be about a foot underdone across the central and northern
waters and adjusting accordingly, seas may linger around 6 ft
north of Ocracoke Inlet into Thursday morning.
LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 430 AM Wednesday...
Key Messages:
-Gusty northerly winds continue through the long term
-Small Craft Advisory conditions return for the weekend
-High uncertainty in the marine forecast this weekend onwards
Seas continue to abate as winds ease into Thursday with seas 3-5
ft. Trough strengthens offshore, maybe resulting in a weak low,
as we approach the weekend. This may result in gusty
north/northeasterly winds 25-30kt late Friday into the weekend.
However, winds and waves are highly dependent on strength,
location, and track of low, should it even develop. As a result,
higher than normal level of uncertainty with the magnitude of
the winds at the end of the long term period.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 430 AM Wednesday...
Higher than normal astronomical tides will continue to produce
elevated waters levels through most of the work week along the
coast and tidal waterways from Ocracoke Inlet to Surf City.
Depending on tide fluctuations, water levels will likely be 1 to
2 feet above ground level during periods of high tide. A coastal
flood advisory remains in effect for portions of the Eastern
North Carolina coastline for the higher tides.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for NCZ094-
     194>196-199.
     Beach Hazards Statement from 7 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for NCZ203.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Thursday for AMZ150-152-
     154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
     AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...SK/RJ
MARINE...SK/RJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX

NWS MHX Office Area Forecast Discussion