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Midwest, Wyoming Weather Forecast Discussion

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FXUS65 KRIW 221702
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 1102 AM MDT Mon Sep 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower and thunderstorm chances will be widespread across the forecast area today, becoming focused east of the Divide in the afternoon/evening.

- Wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph will occur across northern portions of the Bighorn Basin and Johnson County will occur this morning.

- Freezing temperatures are expected across the western valleys Tuesday morning, including southern Lincoln County near Cokeville. Dense fog will also be possible in the western valleys as well as across Yellowstone.

- Drier and warmer weather returns Tuesday, with above normal temperatures in place by Thursday.

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.DISCUSSION... Issued at 131 AM MDT Mon Sep 22 2025

Isolated showers, mainly over western portions of the CWA, will begin to fill in through 12Z this morning as a trough and cold front approach the Cowboy State. Flashes of lightning will be possible over northwestern portions, as this activity moves to the east- northeast. The cold front will reach far northern portions by 09Z, quickly pushing southward and reaching the Casper area by 13Z and Riverton/Lander by 15Z. Most of the precipitation will be focused over western and northern portions through the morning, shifting to areas east of the Divide after 18Z as the trough moves over western WY. A mid-level low will develop off the southern end of the Wind River Mountains by this time, moving toward the Muddy Gap area through the afternoon and southward toward Rawlins by 00Z. This will cause the precipitation to become more focused on the northern end of the low over eastern Fremont/western Natrona County through the overnight hours. This area is still forecasted to receive the bulk of the precipitation today and tonight, with amounts ranging between 0.6" to 0.9". Locally heavy rain will be possible in these and adjacent areas, as PWAT values will be near 0.8", which is the highest value measured for September 22nd. Speaking of which, the autumn equinox will occur at 12:19pm and it will certainly feel like the start of fall. Temperatures today will be 10 to 20 degrees colder and as much as 25 degrees colder over northern Johnson County. Wind gusts up to 25 mph will occur for most locations today, with notable exceptions. Gusts of 35 to 45 mph will occur across northern portions of the Bighorn Basin and Johnson County this morning behind the cold front. These winds will gradually subside in the Bighorn Basin late in the afternoon, but gusts of 25 to 35 mph will continue across Johnson County through the night. Similar winds will occur across Natrona County into Sweetwater County during this time as the front continues its southward progression and the midlevel low moves south. Any lingering precipitation will be over southern portions of Natrona County and eastern Sweetwater County, as the upper level low reaches northern CO.

Any fog Tuesday morning would likely be in the western valleys and Yellowstone, as these areas will likely have clear/mostly clear skies tonight/Tuesday morning. Additionally, will issue a Freeze Watch for these areas as well as southern Lincoln County. Temperatures will drop below 30 degrees as a result of the cold front and clear skies.

Conditions will be mainly dry Tuesday, as clouds gradually recede to the south across Johnson, Natrona, Fremont and Sweetwater counties through the day and clear skies in place by sunset. Winds will remain gusty across Sweetwater County through Tuesday morning, as the sfc pressure gradient will stay tight due to the proximity of the low. Temperatures will be seasonal, except over southern portions (as a result of the cloud cover). High pressure will dominate the pattern through at least Friday, so expect dry conditions and temperatures returning above normal by Thursday. Weak showers could move over far southern portions of Sweetwater County by Saturday due to a closed, upper level (nearly stationary) low over the Desert Southwest. Extended models keep the PFJ well to the north through the weekend, so no significant weather features are expected.

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.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1102 AM MDT Mon Sep 22 2025

A weather system is in the process of diving south through the area this morning. This weather system will bring rain and storm chances to the area through tonight, with most precipitation ending around sunrise Tuesday morning. Conditions will drop to MVFR/IFR at times as low clouds and rain develops and passes through the area. Every terminal will have impacts from rain or storms and for exact timing please refer to the TAFs. Low clouds may linger Tuesday morning, but will begin to dissipate late in the morning.

A cold front is already dropping into the area from the north, which is resulting in a north wind of 10-20 knots, with gusts up to 30 knots from the Bighorn Basin down into Natrona County. This cold front will continue pushing south through the afternoon and reach KRKS this evening around 02Z. For most terminals wind will decrease below 10 knots after sunset, this evening.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for WYZ013-023-027.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LaVoie AVIATION...Rowe

NWS RIW Office Area Forecast Discussion

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