Millboro Springs, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

961
FXUS61 KRNK 282347
AFDRNK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
747 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Some moisture being pulled north by Tropical Storm Imelda will push
into the Piedmont late on Monday, and will bring chances for
light to moderate rain showers to these areas through Tuesday
evening. High pressure overtakes the area by early Wednesday
morning ending rain chances through the remainder of the work
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 720 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
1) Light rain showers starting Monday for the VA and NC
Piedmonts.
2) Patchy fog is again expected Monday morning.
Only a few isolated showers were observed this afternoon,
generally along and west of the southern Blue Ridge, but that
activity has mostly dissipated by this time. Low level clouds
will also continue to dissipate through this evening and
overnight, but higher clouds associated with Tropical Storm
Imelda have already been pushing into the southern and eastern
parts of the forecast area. This will hinder fog development,
but still expecting some patchy fog tomorrow morning,
especially for the valleys west of the Blue Ridge.
Previous discussion below...
As of 130 PM EDT Sunday...
Upper level vorticity left behind the strung out cut off low is
expected to interact with moisture and convection being pulled
north from Tropical Storm Imelda on Monday. This will lead to
bands of light to moderate rainfall being isentropically lifted
over the wedge that has built in over the Mid-Atlantic states
today thanks to surface high pressure moving into New York by
tonight. These wedge conditions will lead to cool northeast flow
at the surface areawide. This flow looks to undercut the warm
tropical airmass being pulled north by Tropical Storm Imelda.
This will lead to the aforementioned light to moderate rain
showers; however, with cooler temperatures at the surface it
will likely be a more stratiform rain compared to a convective
rain. Overall, with the track of Imelda now expected to take an
easterly turn sooner, the rain chances and totals forecast
across the area have considerably dropped off. While conditions
look to remain cloudy most of Monday, temperatures will struggle
to reach into the low to mid 70s for much of the area. This
will be especially true given lows Monday morning forecast in
the mid to upper 50s west of the Blue Ridge, and low 60s east of
the Blue Ridge.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 115 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
1) Some tropical moisture remains in the area through late Tuesday.
2) High pressure builds in on Wednesday.
3) Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal.
As Tropical Depression Nine strengthens into a tropical storm, it
will begin to advect moisture over a stalled frontal boundary along
the East Coast. This moisture will be driven northwestward and into
our area, aided by the lift from the frontal boundary. While rain
chances have decreased since yesterday, enough moisture will be
present for scattered showers to be expected Monday night through
most of the day on Tuesday. By Tuesday night, as Tropical Storm
Imelda turns east and away from the CONUS, the moisture will
also pull back east, with any rain ending Tuesday night. Winds
will remain elevated through the period, despite TS Imelda
staying well off to the south. A tight pressure gradient will
allow NE winds of 5-10 mph each afternoon, with gusts of 15-20+
mph possible. High pressure then begins to build into the area,
with drier air aloft suppressing convection with no rain
expected through the end of the period.
Rain totals will remain modest around the area, with areas west of
the Blue Ridge likely only picking up less than 0.25", with some
areas possibly receiving no rainfall. For the Piedmont and along the
Blue Ridge, around 0.25-0.50" is expected, with pockets up to an
inch possible. Locally higher amounts could occur if enough moisture
advection occurs, but this is looking less likely. A marginal risk
for excessive rainfall is still issued, but now for only the NC
Piedmont area. No severe weather is expected.
With increased cloud cover on Tuesday, temperatures will remain near
to below normal, with highs in the 60s for the mountains and low 70s
for the Piedmont. As skies clear for Wednesday, temperatures rise a
few degrees, with highs mainly in the low to mid 70s, though the
highest elevations stay in the upper 60s. Overnight lows will change
drastically through the period, with mild temperatures around 60
degrees Tuesday morning, before lowering into the 50s Wednesday
morning, and down into the 40s for Thursday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 115 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
1) Tranquil fall weather remains over the area through the period.
2) Cool temperatures late week moderate back to slightly above
normal by late weekend.
A large and strong high pressure system that will be centered over
the Northeastern US into Southeastern Canada is expected to be the
dominant synoptic feature across the Mid-Atlantic Region late this
week. The high will wedge down east of the Appalachians and keep
cool, dry weather in place through Saturday. Winds will remain
elevated, with gusts of 15-20 mph possible at times thanks to the
pressure gradient between the strong high to the north and the
tropical systems offshore in the Atlantic. The high remains dominant
through Sunday, when the high pressure weakens. However, models
differ on whether the high moves east out into the Atlantic, or
remains in place over our area. Regardless, no rain chances are
expected through late Sunday when a slight chance of rain returns
with PoPs around 15%.
Temperatures remain cool late week, with highs mainly in the 60s due
to the wedge in place. By the weekend, the wedge weakens and slowly
erodes, with highs returning into the 70s area-wide. Lows will be
chilly, in the 40s, with the highest elevations dipping down into
the upper 30s. Wind chills Friday morning could fall into the low to
mid 30s in the mountains. By Sunday morning, lows will moderate into
the 40s/50s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 730 PM EDT Sunday...
VFR conditions present areawide this evening, and will continue
for the rest of the day, and low clouds will continue to
dissipate. However, high level clouds associated with Tropical
Storm Imelda have already begun pushing into the area, and will
expect this trend to continue through the overnight hours, with
skies becoming OVC east of the Blue Ridge by Monday morning, and
BKN to OVC in the west. MVFR ceilings or lower will reach KDAN
first by mid to late morning Monday, and then spread to KLYH,
KROA, and KBCB by Monday afternoon, coinciding with the onset of
light rain for those terminals with some of the outer bands from
Imelda. Rain may reach as far west as KBLF, but confidence is
lower, and so have only included VCSH in the KBLF TAF at this
time.
Patchy fog is possible again Monday morning, but may not be as
dense, given the encroaching cloud cover. Confidence is also
lower on specific vsby values, but better confidence that KBLF
and KLWB will see lower vsbys than the other area terminals.
Winds will remain generally from the northeast after 12Z
Monday, between 5 to 10 knots, and may gust up to 15 knots by
the afternoon.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Rain will continue on Tuesday as easterly flow brings moisture
back into the area from the Atlantic Coast, with the potential
for gusty winds Tuesday into Wednesday. Occasional sub- VFR is
possible, especially Monday night and Tuesday night when waves
of light to moderate showers push through the region. Expecting
VFR conditions to return after rain ends Tuesday night, for
Wednesday through Saturday, except for patchy morning fog.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AS/EB
NEAR TERM...AS/EB
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...AS/EB

NWS RNK Office Area Forecast Discussion