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Millbrae, California Weather Forecast Discussion

309
FXUS66 KMTR 211547
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 847 AM PDT Sun Sep 21 2025

...New UPDATE, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 326 AM PDT Sun Sep 21 2025

- Warming trend through Monday and into Tuesday

- Weak offshore flow on Monday and Monday night in the higher terrain

- Rain showers and isolated thunderstorm chances return early to mid week

&&

.UPDATE... Issued at 846 AM PDT Sun Sep 21 2025

Low stratus and patchy fog persist this morning across the Pacific and coastal adjacent valleys. However, these clouds are forecast to retreat to the coast by late morning and more so by early afternoon. Thus will result in mostly sunny conditions across much of the region this afternoon. Thus, temperatures are forecast to be around 5-10 degrees above seasonal averages. No updates anticipated this morning with the current forecast remaining on track.

RGass

&&

.SHORT TERM... Issued at 326 AM PDT Sun Sep 21 2025 (Today and tonight)

Satellite water vapor imagery has blessed with another beautiful picture from space. To our north, over the PacNW, a trough and front passes overhead. To our southwest, an upper low churns off the coast. Night fog products show stratus has started to blanket our coastal waters and intruding on coastal communities. Nonetheless, any inland expansion is expected to be short lived with a sunny skies expected by late morning or early afternoon. The warming trend continues with highs peaking in the 80s and low 90s for interior locations and in the 60s and 70s.

Tonight, upper level ridging noses in with winds coming in from the north. This might keep stratus at bay, especially if the marine compresses to 500-1000ft.

&&

.LONG TERM... Issued at 326 AM PDT Sun Sep 21 2025 (Monday through Saturday)

Upper level ridging will lead to one more day of warmer temperatures. Weak onshore flow is expected Monday night into Tuesday, as the ridge flattens and the upper level lifts towards southern or central CA. The pattern continues to favor showers mid week, with thunderstorms remaining possible. Convective ingredients look semi favorable, with a couple hundred J/kg of MUCAPE looking likely for southern Monterey and San Benito counties. Some ensemble members take this up the Diablo Range and to a lesser extent the interior North Bay; however, this is likely due to the models determining where the low will go. Moisture looks to be prevalent, with PWATs valued between 1.0-1.3 inches. Shear looks to be minimal, but perhaps just enough to keep storms going if the they`re elevated.

Drier weather should return Thursday and into the weekend. Cooler weather should be on tap as well, as the upper low exits the region.

&&

.AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 502 AM PDT Sun Sep 21 2025

Low CIGs have filled along the coast and the bays with CIGs approaching the North Bay terminals. FOG and LIFR CIGS affect STS through the mid morning. CIGs begin to erode in the late morning leading to widespread VFR for the Afternoon as winds build and become moderate to breezy. Winds reduce into the mid evening and into the night. CIGs return to the coast and Monterey Bay into the late night.

Vicinity of SFO...CIGS last into the late morning, but erode into as moderate northwest winds return. Expect breezier winds for the afternoon with gusts peaking around 25 kts. These winds reduce into the night, becoming moderate.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...IFR/LIFR CIGs with light winds last into the late morning.Expect VFR and moderate west winds for the afternoon. Winds reduce the evening and early night, with IFR CIGs returning in the late night.

&&

.MARINE... (Today through Friday) Issued at 846 AM PDT Sun Sep 21 2025

Northerly flow with light to moderate winds will persist through early Sunday. Northerly winds increase Sunday afternoon as a weak cold front approaches from the north. Wave heights build across the coastal waters late Sunday through early next week as a cutoff low moves into California. There is a low chance for isolated showers and embedded thunderstorms Tuesday into Wednesday across the southernmost waters. Winds decrease and seas abate across the coastal waters Tuesday through late week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 PM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KR LONG TERM....KR AVIATION...Murdock MARINE...MM

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NWS MTR Office Area Forecast Discussion

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