155 FXUS62 KCHS 202347 AFDCHSArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 747 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.SYNOPSIS... High pressure will prevail through early next week. A coastal trough could form near the coast during the middle of next week, then a cold front will approach from the west late in the week.
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Early this evening, an old outflow boundary has triggered several thunderstorms across the I-95 corridor. These thunderstorms have pushed east of the sea breeze, encountering increasingly stable environment. Storms should gradually dissipate through 930 PM. The rest of the night should feature dry weather and steady NE winds. Min temperatures are forecast to range in the mid to upper 60s.
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.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Weak surface high pressure will remain northeast of the area Sunday into Monday. The upper ridge extending from the western Atlantic into the eastern United States will gradually shift east during this period, allowing the 0-6 km flow to become SSE. Moisture will gradually increase over the area with clouds increasing Sunday night into Monday. Greater moisture across coastal southeast GA could support isolated sea breeze convection Monday afternoon. A weak coastal trough could develop on Tuesday, though the best forcing will remain offshore. Temps will continue to be near or slightly above normal.
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.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A closed upper low is forecast to move toward the Southeast mid to late next week. Surface low pressure and a cold front could affect the area Friday or Saturday, though guidance continues to be quite inconsistent on details. Decent rain chances could begin as early as Thursday.
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.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Prior to the 0Z TAFs, an old outflow boundary has triggered several thunderstorms across the I-95 corridor. These thunderstorms have pushed east of the sea breeze, encountering increasingly stable environment. Storms should gradually dissipate through 2Z. KCHS will remain close enough to a passing thunderstorm to support a TEMPO until 2Z. The rest of the night should feature dry weather and steady NE winds. VFR conditions expected through the daylight hours Sunday.
Extended Aviation Forecast: Mainly VFR.
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.MARINE... Through Tonight: Onshore winds early will turn to the NE this evening, then remain sustained 10-15 kt overnight. Winds should be the strongest at daybreak Sunday, which is when wind gusts could hit 20 kt, mainly further offshore. Seas should average 2-4 ft.
Sunday through Monday, a wedge of high pressure will build inland as a trough of lower pressure forms over the Atlantic waters. This will result in northeast winds of 15-20 knots, with some gusts near 25 knots possible. Seas generally 3 to 5 feet. At this time, still expect conditions to remain below SCA levels.
Tuesday and Wednesday, the wedge of inland high pressure weakens and moves eastward, with low level winds decreasing and veering to more east and southeast. Winds generally 15 knots or less and seas 2 to 4 feet through this period.
Rip Currents: There remains a Moderate Risk of rip currents along our Georgia beaches into this evening. Moderate Risk Sunday and Monday due to stronger than normal NE winds and moderate swells.
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.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Strong northeasterly winds are expected to create larger tidal departures this weekend, which could result in tide levels approaching 7 ft MLLW (minor) in Charleston Harbor starting with this evening`s high tide cycle. The risk for minor coastal flooding should continue into early next week. Coastal Flood Advisories could eventually be needed for minor saltwater flooding in Charleston and Coastal Colleton Counties.
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.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.
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NEAR TERM...NED SHORT TERM...JRL LONG TERM...JRL AVIATION...NED MARINE...JRL
NWS CHS Office Area Forecast Discussion