Mine Run, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

464
FXUS61 KLWX 170730
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
330 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal low will slowly drift northwestward toward the area
through afternoon, before weakening and departing off toward the
northeast on Thursday. Thereafter, high pressure will build in and
remain in control through early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Satellite and surface observations show the surface low pressure is
centered north of Norfolk over the far lower Chesapeake Bay. The
broad circulation is noted across most of the Mid-Atlantic, with
bands of rain showers steadily moving across our area early this
morning. These are expected to continue for most of the day and
bring gusty, heavy showers at times. Not much of a temperature
change expected today given the cloud cover and shower activity.
Highs will struggle to reach the 60s, with low 70s in the
Alleghenies where breaks in the cloud cover allow some sunshine to
filter in.
High-res guidance is in good agreement that the low pressure will
meander over Southeast VA, weaken, then push offshore and mostly
dissipate tonight. As the low makes its closest approach to our
area, there could be some heavier banding that sets up just east of
I-95 in southern MD to just east of Fredericksburg this afternoon to
early evening. The ensemble/probabilistic guidance indicate upwards
of 1-2" are possible if a heavy band sets up. Otherwise, additional
rainfall amounts through tonight will range from a quarter to half
an inch, locally up to three quarters of an inch possible.
Breezy conditions persist through the afternoon, with gusts around
20-25 mph. Showers come to an end this evening into tonight from
west to east as the low pulls away from the area. Steady state
temperatures through the night in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Weak, disorganized high pressure builds into the area Thursday and
Friday, bringing dry conditions and warmer temperatures. Highs reach
the low 80s Thursday and mid to upper 80s Friday. Moisture from the
coastal low earlier in the week will linger, so it could be a bit
muggy at times given the warmer temps. A dry cold front moves
through the area late Friday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The forecast is trending toward a quieter period ahead for this
weekend into the early portions of next week. Any precipitation
chances have fallen off and may not show up until Tuesday, if not
longer.
Looking at the synoptic pattern, a longwave trough will exit
eastward into the Canadian Maritimes. At the same time, a broad
upper low initially over the north-central U.S. is likely to shear
on its approach eastward this weekend. Consequently, the lack of any
organized feature aloft would suggest any chances for rainfall would
be minimal at best. Long-range deterministic and ensemble solutions
do support a more pronounced trough digging into the central U.S.
early next week. While beyond the current forecast period, this
particular amplified flow could bring a more notable pattern shift
during the middle/latter portions of next week.
At the surface, Canadian high pressure builds to the north over the
weekend. The post-frontal air mass allows for a cool down back into
the upper 70s, with mountains in the 60s to low 70s. The position of
this ridge axis will favor a more onshore component to the
prevailing winds. The residual cold-air damming wedge signature
erodes by Monday as warm advection ensues into early next week. This
shift favors a warmer pattern as highs return to the low 80s,
perhaps slightly higher as shown by ensemble spread.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A coastal low over southeast Virginia will continue to produce low
clouds and passing bands of showers through this afternoon. Cloud
heights are expected to slowly drop this morning and afternoon,
eventually becoming IFR at all the terminals. Showers could at times
produce gusts around 20-25 knots. These showers come to an end this
evening as the low moves offshore and dissipates.
Even lower clouds are likely tonight, possibly dropping really close
to LIFR levels. There could also be patchy dense fog in some areas.
Conditions quickly improve Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon
as northwest winds help to scour out the clouds. After that, VFR
conditions persist through Friday. A dry cold front moves through
Friday night, bringing a northerly wind shift.
Canadian high pressure building over the northeastern U.S. will
favor VFR conditions over the weekend. Wind fields should mainly be
easterly on Saturday before turning more toward the southeast by the
conclusion of the weekend. Afternoon gusts may top out around 10 to
15 knots each day.
&&
.MARINE...
A coastal low over the Virginia Tidewater will meander there through
this afternoon, then slowly move offshore tonight, before
dissipating. While Gale conditions have ended, Small Craft
Advisories remain in effect for all the waters through this
afternoon. Winds quickly ramp down this afternoon, with sub-SCA
winds expected by this evening.
Favorable marine conditions expected Thursday and Friday as weak
high pressure moves over the region. A dry cold front moves through
the area Friday night. Northerly channeling behind the front could
cause SCA conditions over parts of the waters.
The presence of high pressure centered to the north will support
mainly easterly flow for the upcoming weekend. Gusts on Saturday
likely rise to around 15 knots, perhaps slightly higher at times.
Gradients weaken into Sunday while winds stay below advisory
levels.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ530>533-538>541.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
     ANZ534>537-542-543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KRR
NEAR TERM...KRR
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...BRO
AVIATION...KRR/BRO
MARINE...KRR/BRO

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion