Mizpah, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

449
FXUS63 KDLH 122055
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
355 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and storms through this evening. A storm or
  two could become strong to severe. Heavy rain could cause
  localized flash flooding.
- Areas of fog are possible again tonight.
- Quiet weather with unseasonably warm and summer-like
  temperatures this weekend. Highs in the 70s to low 80s.
- On-and-off chances for showers and storms next week with
  continuing warm weather.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
We`ve had a few rambunctious thunderstorms earlier this
morning, and some storms are still persisting and even thriving
this afternoon, mainly around Hinckley/Pine City at the moment
and headed east into Wisconsin. There is a nose of elevated
instability with a surface instability gradient across central
Minnesota. These storms are co-located with some 35-45 kt
effective shear, a weak trough embedded with the broader ridge
aloft, and plenty of warm and moist air advection. We have some
juicy dew points in the low 60s out ahead of the current
complex, but temperatures aren`t extremely warm out there with
the anvil cirrus shield extending out ahead of the thunderstorm
complex. With that said, the storms that are ongoing should have
enough ingredients out ahead of them to sustain for the most
part through the afternoon. They may weaken or strengthen
slightly, and if they do briefly strengthen, a strong to severe
storm or two capable of producing some large hail or damaging
winds will be possible.
In addition to that, there is an abundance of moisture with
PWATs around 1.5". We`ve seen some heavy rainfall rates
around the Brainerd Lakes earlier this morning, and potential
for localized 1-2"+ hour rates can`t be ruled out this afternoon
as these storms move into northwest Wisconsin. At this time,
movement is progressive enough that widespread flooding
shouldn`t be a concern, but some localized flash flooding can`t
be ruled out. The general consensus among CAMs is to keep these
storms progressively moving east through the early evening
without too much development behind them, but a bit of
redevelopment behind can`t be totally ruled since an elevated
area of MUCAPE will still be present behind through the
afternoon.
Once storms move out later this evening, we settle back into
easterly flow at the surface and warm air advection aloft
underneath a broad ridge. The ridge should stick around through
the weekend, keeping temperatures warm (well above normal,
though not quite record breaking). With easterly onshore flow,
expect cooler temperatures around Lake Superior, but inland,
expect highs in the 80s.
Sunday night, an upper-level trough may bring some showers and
thunderstorms. These will most likely not be severe, but there
could be marginally favorable shear and instability for a stray
strong to severe storm or two. Storm chances may linger into
Monday, then perhaps a brief break, then another upper level
wave may move in and bring more showers/storms going into
Wednesday. Another case of largely non-severe storms, but a
stray severe storm or two can`t be ruled out. A broader upper
low may pass through going into late-week, so yet again, more
shower/storm chances. There are some hinds that a cold front may
try and sneak its way in going into next weekend and bring back
some closer-to-fall temperatures, but it`s not a guarantee.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
Some lingering fog is possible at DLH for approximately the next
hour with light upslope flow. Expect visibilities to improve for
this afternoon. There is an area of thunderstorms just north of
HIB which could affect the terminal within the next hour or two
(~30% chance), but the most likely scenario is that they remain
to the north. Otherwise, some partially clearing skies to
predominantly VFR this afternoon. There will be some variable
winds the next hour or two with outflow from thunderstorms,
especially at BRD/HIB. After sunset tonight, expect more fog to
develop with MVFR to IFR visibilities through Saturday morning.
Outside of thunderstorms, expect easterly winds below 10 kt.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 354 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
There is a low chance (20-30%) for some showers and storms
through this evening. Areas of fog are also possible tonight
through Saturday morning.
Breezy conditions with northeast winds at the head of the lake
leading to gusts around 15 to 25 kt. Small Craft Advisories have
been issued for the head of the lake and outer Apostle Islands
through the early evening. Winds may decrease below 20 kt by
around 00z to 01z, and it`s possible the Small Craft Advisories
may be allowed to expire early.
A similar day on Saturday with northeast winds gusting to around
20 kt. There`s a ~30% chance that there could be some gusts to
around 25 kt that could warrant a Small Craft Advisory. Sunday
looks even slightly breezier than Saturday, and the likelihood
of gusts to 25 kt is ~40%.
The next chance for showers and storms is Sunday night into
Monday.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ037.
WI...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM CDT this evening for WIZ001.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for
     LSZ140>142.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     LSZ143>146.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ150.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...JDS

NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion