Mont Vernon, New Hampshire Weather Forecast Discussion

894
FXUS61 KBOX 230527
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
127 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather continues until the chance for some unsettled
weather returns late tomorrow afternoon through Wednesday.
Temperatures should also average about normal this week, with
the exception of above normal temperatures Tuesday. Potential
for a more widespread rainfall event Thursday and Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Key Messages:
* Mild night with increased cloud cover.
High pressure moves offshore, and S/SW winds usher in higher
PWATs of 1.5" and result in increased cloud cover tonight.
Temperatures lower into the middle 50s to 60F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Mild temperatures along with elevated humidity Tuesday. Mainly dry
  day, with showers by late afternoon to early evening into the
  overnight.
Continued S/SW flow leads to a muggy and warm first full day of fall
as the high temperatures reach the mid-70s to 80F. PWATs of 1.6"
support a muggy feel with dew points in the middle 60s.
In general much of the day is dry, shortwave energy approaches
late afternoon to early evening across western areas, providing
forcing for showers and rumbles of thunder. Conditions are not
favorable for severe thunderstorms given the late arrival (close
to sunset), the meager instability and low shear values. CAPE
is only a few hundred units and the shear is less than 20 knots,
biggest threat likely lightning and sub-severe gusts. Areas
that have the greatest chance of a storm, are across the
interior of southern New England where a few hundred units of
CAPE can be found.
Overnight the shortwave pushes east with shower activity. A mild
night ahead is expected with the S/SW flow and cloud cover. Lows
only fall to the low and middle 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Rainfall chances continue into Wednesday
* The pattern remains unsettled through the rest of this week
A low pressure traversing along a cold front will maintain rainfall
chances into Wednesday. There could be a brief lull in this rainfall
during the afternoon into the late evening hours before another low
pressure moves along this same front and increases rainfall chances
once more sometime Wednesday Night into Thursday. It appears that
rainfall chances end sometime this weekend as a cold front finally
moves across our region and we come under the influence of a high
pressure over the central Appalachians.
While it will likely not be raining the entire time from Wednesday
to Saturday morning, there is a 50-70% probability most locations
can get an inch or more of rainfall during this time. Odds are less
for 2 or more inches of rainfall, generally between 20-40%. As dry
as we have been lately, we can really use whatever rain we can get.
Temperatures should average near to slightly above normal for this
portion of the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
06z TAF update...
Through 12z...
VFR, but patchy stratus may develop over Cape Cod and ACK and
portions of CT valley
Today...High confidence.
Any stratus will burn off quickly with VFR for much of the day.
Scattered SHRA/TSRA developing after 19z in the interior. Brief
heavy rain and lower cigs/vsbys with any t-storms. SW wind 10-15
kt with gusts to 20 kt Cape/Islands.
Tonight and Wednesday...Moderate confidence.
Cigs lowering to MVFR-IFR tonight and continuing Wed. Scattered
showers and a few t-storms tonight. Chance of showers or patchy
drizzle Wed. Winds shifting to light N tonight north of the
south coast, with NE wind 10-15 kt Wed.
KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Low risk for TSRA
late afternoon and evening, but confidence not high enough to
include in TAF.
KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Risk of t-storms
20-00z.
Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. SHRA likely.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. SHRA
likely, slight chance TSRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night through Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Tuesday Night...High Confidence.
High pressure south of the Maritimes leads to relatively light
winds and seas across the waters until tomorrow morning. Seas
building to 5 ft are expected over the waters tomorrow late
morning through midweek. Small Craft Advisories have been
issued for much of Tuesday into Wednesday as a precaution.
Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...
Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance
of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms, patchy fog.
Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of
rain showers, patchy fog.
Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance
of rain showers.
Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Rain showers likely.
Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Rain showers likely, slight chance of thunderstorms.
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain showers.
Friday Night through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of
rain showers.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for
     ANZ235-237.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ250.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/Dooley
NEAR TERM...Belk/Dooley
SHORT TERM...Dooley
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...Belk/KJC
MARINE...Belk/Dooley

NWS BOX Office Area Forecast Discussion