Monteagle, Tennessee Weather Forecast Discussion

020
FXUS64 KOHX 241143
AFDOHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
643 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 638 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
- Medium to high rain and thunderstorm chances through Thursday.
  Low threat for severe storms, a few could produce strong winds
  and heavy downpours.
- There is a low to medium chance of localized flash flooding
  with the pockets of heaviest rainfall.
- Low rain chances for the eastern third of the area over the
  weekend. Most of the area will be dry.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Showers and storms continue to push across the area tonight with
the heaviest rainfall over the last 6-12 hours concentrated over
Perry, Lewis, Maury, and Marshall counties. Some MRMS and personal
weather stations have shown 24 hour totals of 3-5 inches. Despite
the heavy rain, no major flooding reports have been received
likely thanks to the recent drought conditions. The main question
with this forecast package is how much rain will fall before the
trough sweeps through our area late Thursday. CAMS have been
indicating some pockets of rain in excess of 3-4" through
Wednesday night. The HREF shows some pockets with a 10% chance of
4-6" mainly along I-40. My confidence in the CAMs are not high at
the moment as the latest iterations have been misplaced with the
current activity showing it further north than reality. I will
hold off issuing a Flood Watch but we`ll need to keep a close eye
of CAM trends in regards to placement of the heaviest rainfall and
potential rain totals.
As far as severe potential, we`ll still have 30 kts of effective
bulk shear present Wednesday afternoon along with 1000-2000 J/kg
of MLCAPE. Lapse rates will be on a low side, so the main severe
weather threat will be some gusty winds and perhaps some small
hail. The surface front will move through the area Thursday
afternoon with shower and storm chances decreasing Thursday night.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
As the upper trough moves through on Thursday, models are showing
a piece of energy being left behind in the form of an upper low in
vicinity of our area. This will keep some low rain chances in the
forecast for the eastern third of the area Friday and over the
weekend. Temperatures will be comfortable through the weekend with
highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s and lows in the 50s to low 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
VFR conditions this morning lower to MVFR through the evening as
showers and thunderstorms return. Low CIGs look to move in tonight
after 03z, bringing IFR conditions across Middle TN. Confidence
is low with showers and thunderstorm timing through the TAF
period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      84  68  82  61 /  80  70  70  20
Clarksville    84  66  81  55 /  60  60  40  10
Crossville     78  63  74  59 /  70  80  80  40
Columbia       83  67  81  59 /  70  70  70  10
Cookeville     79  65  76  60 /  70  80  80  40
Jamestown      78  65  74  59 /  60  80  80  30
Lawrenceburg   82  66  79  59 /  80  80  80  20
Murfreesboro   83  68  81  61 /  70  70  80  20
Waverly        81  65  79  56 /  80  60  60  10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Reagan
LONG TERM....Reagan
AVIATION.....Cravens

NWS OHX Office Area Forecast Discussion