Monteview, Idaho Weather Forecast Discussion

706
FXUS65 KPIH 070824
AFDPIH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
224 AM MDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms today and
  tonight.
- Dry Monday and Monday evening.
- Cooler and unsettled Tuesday through Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 157 AM MDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Southwest flow aloft will bring a very weak shortwave through
southern Idaho today. It should generate showers and
thunderstorms during the afternoon and early part of the
evening. The moisture should clear out overnight and Mon may
have a few afternoon clouds but not enought moisture for showers
and thunderstorms. By late Mon night, The coastal low that has
set up the southwesterly airflow over the Gem State will move
onshore, turning the flow to southerly. This will allow another
round of moist and unstable air to surge northward and into
southern Idaho. Tue/Tue night will see only a low threat of
thunderstorms.
The increased cloud cover will cool temperatures slightly for
today, then a level-off for the sunnier Mon, with further cool-
down on Tue.
Wind outside of thunderstorms should remain light through the
period. Surface wind will be primarily northerly for Sun and
Mon, then shift to a southerly component on Tue.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 157 AM MDT Sun Sep 7 2025
The focus of this period will be the upper level trough or
closed low moving through the Great Basin. Most clusters have
the trough digging far enough south to put the forecast area in
the cooler sector on the north side, and keeping the stronger
wind to the south. However, the one solution that keeps the
track a little farther north has the plurality of solutions at
around 40 percent. Either way, it will mean cloudiness and rain,
with the potential for thunderstorms this time of year. This
trough does not clear the region until Sat. Sun is when
temperatures should begin to warm again and precipitation threat
decrease significantly. Since the main energy is over Utah and
the southern Great Basin, see no significant wind during this
period, outside of thunderstorm outflow.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1003 PM MDT Sat Sep 6 2025
A few showers linger across the region this evening and some mid
level clouds at the various airports.  Clearing anticipated
overnigth. On Sunday expect afternoon widespread thunderstorms with
all locations listed with PROB30s groups in the mid afternoon period
into early Sunday evening. Gusty outflow winds will be possible with
any of the stronger storms but otherwise the synoptic wind regime
remains fairly light. ip should taper off during the evening hours.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 157 AM MDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Moist and unstable air continues over the region today, with a
higher threat of thunderstorms, although they should come with
some good precipitation. These conditions will dry out quickly
overnight, and Mon appears to have some strong drying, although
still not to critical levels. Late Mon night an upper level low
approaching from the west will shift the airflow to southerly.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms will begin on Tue
and continue through Fri night. This will keep humidity high as
the clouds cool temperatures, where they reach below normal by
Thu. Showers peak on Fri, then strong warming and drying returns
by Sun.
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Messick
LONG TERM...Messick
AVIATION...McKaughan
FIRE WEATHER...Messick

NWS PIH Office Area Forecast Discussion