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Moorefield, Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

634
FXUS63 KLBF 240924
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 424 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions and mild temperatures are expected through Thursday.

- A weak cold front crosses the area Friday night. A wind shift to the northwest can be expected. No precipitation is expected with the front.

- Breezy south winds develop Sunday into the first of next week ahead of a long wave trough developing across the western United States. Temperatures remaining on the very mild/warm side.

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.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 359 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025

With the recent rainfall, watching for any fog development this morning. Despite clearing skies and small temp/dew point spreads, light northwest winds will likely help to keep visibility up this morning. Still, some patches of fog cannot be ruled out, especially in protected low-lying areas. Have not included in the forecast as it doesn`t seem it will be much of an issue.

Otherwise, surface high pressure will dominate today with a light northwest surface flow at 5-10 kts. As temperatures warm into the mid 70s this afternoon...expect some fair weather cumulus development across the southeast half the area due to the colder temperatures aloft and steepening boundary layer lapse rates.

Light west to northwest winds and clear skies tonight will allow for a chilly night. Lows in the mid 40s are expected across western Nebraska and the Platte River Valley, with the rest of the area in the upper 40s to near 50. As surface high pressure moves off to the east Thursday, winds will swing around to light southwest. Low-level WAA will help temperatures climb a few degrees, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

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.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 359 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025

A weak shortwave will approach the area Friday. Ahead of this system highs will reach well into the 80s, especially across parts of north central and northwest Nebraska. Some limited potential for elevated fire weather conditions across northwest Nebraska as afternoon humidity drops into the 20-25% range. It appears, however, that a leeward trough will be parked across that area downstream from the approaching wave. This would keep winds light and variable across that area. Will continue to monitor.

A dry cold frontal passage will move across the area Friday night with "cooler" highs in the mid 70s Saturday behind the front. Southerly low-level flow returns Saturday night into Sunday. This will bring a surge of dew points back up to around 60 or in the lower 60s. Despite gusty south winds, the higher humidity should help to offset any fire weather concerns.

Southwest flow aloft will gradually develop early next week ahead of a long wave trough digging southward across the western CONUS. Should remain continued dry across our area with south winds continuing along with very mild/warm temperatures. Appears enough modified gulf air will continue to keep fire weather concerns on the low side.

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.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1143 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

Aviation concerns continue to focus on low clouds and potential for low-end fog. At this time, confidence continues to remain low that conditions deteriorate beyond low-end VFR. Have opted to maintain VFR as a result though will have to monitor trends going forward. Expecting daytime conditions to remain favorable for aviation operations with mostly sunny to sunny conditions and light winds at or below 15 knots.

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.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Taylor LONG TERM...Taylor AVIATION...NMJ

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion

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