Morrison, Tennessee Weather Forecast Discussion

728
FXUS64 KOHX 221112
AFDOHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
612 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 610 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
- Medium to high rain and thunderstorm chances are in the forecast
  through Thursday. There is a low threat for severe storms with
  damaging winds Monday through Wednesday. Some storms will have
  heavy downpours causing minor flooding.
- Temperatures will cool down to near normal values by mid-week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 532 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Well, we hit the trifecta today. Middle TN is blanketed with a
Marginal risk each of the next 3 days. That doesn`t change the
messaging we`ve been hitting everyone with, however. Each
afternoon/evening we`ll run the risk of gusty winds (40-60 mph)
and heavy rainfall. As mentioned in the earlier discussion, PWs
are running abnormally high and will reach near 1.8-1.9 inches
each of the next couple of days. This will create a situation of
efficient rainfall on top of hard ground and runoff could cause
localized flooding issues. Please keep this in mind and keep an
eye on the forecast and radar over the next few days.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1040 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Scattered showers and storms that formed Sunday afternoon weakened
during the late evening, but scattered showers and a few rumbles will
linger here and there overnight into daybreak Monday.
The next wave will come on Monday with slightly greater coverage
than Sunday. Once again some storms will produce heavy rain.
The passing shortwave will bring an increase in deep layer shear,
so there will be a slightly greater risk for storm organization
and damaging wind gusts Monday afternoon and evening. As of late
Sunday evening, SPC had placed most of the area under a Marginal
Risk (level 1 out of 5).
Scattered showers/storms will continue Monday night and Tuesday with
activity decreasing, but not totally ending overnight. The
coverage and strength of storms will increase again daytime
Tuesday with another low risk for severe storms Tuesday afternoon
and evening.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 1040 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Wednesday into Thursday, a closed upper level low pressure system
will form along the Ms River Valley. This will bring widespread
lift and forcing for rain and storms. PWATs will likely be highest
during this time with values of 1.75 to 2 inches. Rain chances
are high Wednesday into Thursday with an increased potential for
localized flooding. The widespread rain and clouds will bring
temperatures down near normal levels.
A front sweeps through the area late Thursday which will keep our
high temperatures in the 70s to low 80s through the weekend. Post
front, rain chances will decrease, however, some shower chances will
linger as an upper-level low hangs around into the weekend. Later
next weekend, things dry out with pleasant temperatures lasting
well into the following week as we wrap up September.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Mainly VFR conditions this TAF cycle. Will have sct storms around
Middle TN throughout the cycle. Have tried to time out some of
these with PROB30s as confidence is not high enough to tempo or
prevail. Winds will be light from the southwest, outside of a few
gusts of 15 to 18 kts this morning.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      87  69  87  69 /  70  60  60  50
Clarksville    85  66  85  67 /  70  70  60  70
Crossville     80  63  79  62 /  60  40  70  40
Columbia       87  67  86  67 /  60  50  50  50
Cookeville     82  64  81  65 /  70  50  80  50
Jamestown      82  64  79  64 /  60  60  80  50
Lawrenceburg   86  66  85  66 /  60  50  50  40
Murfreesboro   87  67  86  67 /  60  50  60  50
Waverly        85  65  83  66 /  70  60  60  70
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......Unger
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Unger

NWS OHX Office Area Forecast Discussion