Morven, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

508
FXUS62 KRAH 211807
AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
207 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend across the Middle Atlantic through Monday,
then drift to near Bermuda through mid-week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 120 PM Sunday...
* Slightly above normal temperatures and dry conditions.
After last nights cold fropa, high pressure has continued to build
back into the region. With daytime heating, this morning`s area of
low stratus has continued lifting and scattering out, leaving some
mostly cloudy areas still in the north. Clouds should continue to
clear throughout the afternoon. Temperatures this afternoon should
be slightly above normal, with highs expected around 80 degrees in
the north to the mid 80s in the south. Tonight, expect areas of fog
and/or low stratus to develop again, with low temperatures in the
upper 50s to the low-to-mid 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 120 PM Sunday...
* Another warm and dry day, with increased clouds expected.
A similar day to today is expected on Monday. Surface high pressure
will persist over central NC, allowing for a dry forecast to
continue. A shortwave trough looks to move through the region
Monday, which should allow for increased clouds throughout the day.
Maximum temperatures Monday afternoon look to stay around 80 degrees
in the north to the mid 80s in the south, before dipping back into
the upper 50s to mid 60s overnight. Areas of fog and low stratus
will be possible again in the east Monday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 120 PM Sunday...
On Tuesday morning, there will be two primary pieces of upper level
energy over the United States, one over Lake Superior and the second
over Colorado. These two pieces of energy will merge over the
central United States late Wednesday, strengthening an existing
surface low that will be the primary weather maker for North
Carolina through the week. While a minimal chance of rain will reach
the area Wednesday afternoon and night, a more substantial chance of
rain will arrive Thursday, with a 60% chance of rain reaching as far
east as US-1 Thursday evening and across nearly all locations Friday
afternoon as a cold front moves across the area. A bit of
uncertainty remains as to how quickly the rain shield will move east
of the region - the newest forecast has a 30-40% chance of showers
on Saturday and just a 20% chance on Sunday.
Hazards: Considering the slow movement of the system, there is a low
risk of flash flooding Thursday onward with the potential for
occasional rain for multiple days, despite the dry conditions
recently. In addition, while there is a slight chance of
thunderstorms on Thursday and Saturday, the most likely day for
thunderstorms will be Friday as that will be the day with the
greatest instability. Considering the strength of the accompanying
upper level system, Friday could have some strong to severe
thunderstorms, although the Storm Prediction Center currently does
not include any locations in their outlooks past Tuesday.
Temperatures: Tuesday and Wednesday appear to be the warmest days in
the extended forecast with southerly flow and minimal cloud cover,
with highs ranging from the mid 80s to the low 90s. Highs will come
down a couple degrees each day after that with the increasing rain
chances and the cold front, with highs on Saturday and Sunday likely
to range from the mid 70s to the low 80s. Lows will generally be in
the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM Sunday...
24-hour TAF period: MVFR ceilings are still observed in a few spots
across the northern Piedmont, including INT and RDU, so have TEMPO
groups for this potential, but these should lift and scatter out
within the next hour. Otherwise expect dry weather and VFR
conditions through this evening. NE low-level flow will result in
another round of low stratus and fog across central NC, with
widespread IFR conditions expected. The greatest confidence in low
stratus and fog is at RWI, with the lowest confidence at INT and
GSO, as model soundings aren`t as moist there in the low levels. But
based on the latest HRRR and what occurred this morning, still opted
to keep it in the TAFs at those sites for now. A period of LIFR
conditions will even be possible at any of the TAF sites around
sunrise. Ceilings will lift to MVFR by mid to late morning and VFR
everywhere by late morning and early afternoon, likely latest at RWI.
Outlook: Areas of stratus and also some fog will be possible again
Tue and Wed mornings, mainly at RWI and FAY. Showers/storms and
flight restrictions are expected late Wed into the upcoming weekend,
as a slow-moving trough aloft and surface cold front approach our
region.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...Helock
SHORT TERM...Helock
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...Danco/MWS

NWS RAH Office Area Forecast Discussion